Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: Arsenal vs. Leicester City (Sunday, Oct. 25)

Arsenal vs. Leicester City Odds

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Leicester City head to the Emirates on Sunday to take on Arsenal in what should be a high-quality matchup between sides with Top 6 aspirations. I am expecting a tight, but entertaining, game between these two clubs.

Leicester City

Leicester City started off the season in fantastic fashion, winning its first three league matches, a run capped off by a 5-2 victory away to Manchester City. That result was a bit kind to them, with three goals from penalty kicks helping out the Foxes. Nevertheless, it was a great start to the campaign.

The last two matches have been more of a struggle for Leicester and what I would pay closer attention to when evaluating them ahead of this match against Arsenal.

In those last two games, they have lost to West Ham, 3-0, and Aston Villa, 1-0. Over those two games, Leicester generated 0.57 xG per game. These numbers are related to injuries suffered by their best players.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Against Villa, they were without their talisman Jamie Vardy, who has five goals in four games this season. A Golden Boot winner is very hard to replace, and Leicester will be a shell of themselves if he can't feature on Sunday.

On top of that, they have also been without defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and their best center back in Caglar Soyuncu. Their star playmaker James Maddison is also not fully fit and was only able to be subbed on against Aston Villa.

All of these injuries have caused manager Brendan Rodgers to adjust on the fly. The shape and style of Leicester this season has turned more defensive and will likely continue to be that way unless Vardy and Maddison can give it a full go.

Rodgers is hopeful they will be able to feature. I would expect we see a tactical strategy from Rodgers that isn't overly aggressive.

Arsenal

I have been impressed with how manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing. We no longer see incredible defensive errors from the Gunners, and the strategy of the team seems succinct. Over their first five games, they have generated 1.24 xG per game while allowing 1.30 xGA per contest.

I think the goals will come and would be very pleased with the improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Starting the season with three wins and two losses is solid, especially given the two defeats are away to Liverpool and Manchester City. They held Man City to an xG of 1.43 and really stifled Fulham and Sheffield United in victories over them.

Leicester City are somewhere between the class of Liverpool and Manchester City and the struggles of Sheffield United and Fulham. Based on the last few games and the opponents in those matches, I am expecting for a tight and low-scoring affair here given how the Gunners have played of late.

Arteta has shown us he isn't afraid to play chess while managing a game. Having attacker Willian and midfielder Dani Ceballos fit will help the attack, but I'm just not sure Arsenal are going to run away with this one.

A large reason for my skepticism is the form of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Arsenal's main goal scorer (22 in the Premier League last season) has only generated 0.4 xG over his first five games.

I'm not sounding the alarm on him yet, but he hasn't gotten it going and that form will affect Arsenal's firepower as long as it continues.

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Arsenal-Leicester City pick

I think the under of 2.75 on the alternative number is the play here. I think we will get a 1-1 draw or a tight 1-0 victory late. Even if we go with the five game numbers, Arsenal has a total xG/game of 2.54, and Leicester's total is 2.83.

However, due to injuries, the numbers for Leicester in their last two matches are 1.54 and 2.02. Those numbers lead me to the under 2.75 at -113.

Pick: Under 2.75 (-113)