Arsenal vs. West Bromwich Albion Premier League Odds & Picks: Bet Gunners to Dominate (May 9)
David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Mohamed Elneny.
- Arsenal lost in the semifinal round of the Europa League on Thursday, leaving it with just a sliver of hope for European competitions next season.
- Things have been much worse for West Bromwich Albion, who has just two points in its last three matches and has all but guaranteed relegation.
- BJ Cunningham is comfortable backing the Gunners at Emirates Stadium in Sunday's Premier League match, despite playing just three days ago.
Arsenal vs. West Brom Odds
|West Brom Odds||+600|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-143 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings.|
Arsenal look to keep their slim hopes of qualifying for the Europa League alive Sunday when they host West Brom.
Arsenal bowed out of the Europa League on Thursday against Villarreal, which means they are likely going to miss out on the European competitions for the first time in 25 years. They’ve been in terrible form over the past few months, winning only three of their last eight matches.
West Brom’s hopes of surviving relegation are virtually over and it looks like they’ll be heading back down to the Championship. They’ve been dreadful on the road this season, picking up only 11 of a possible 51 points away from the Hawthorns. The Baggies need all three points from this match or relegation to the second division will be official.
Arsenal have really struggled to create chances on the domestic front this season, averaging only 1.41 xG per match. The Gunners’ defense has been stout, though, conceding just 1.14 xG per match, which is the sixth-best mark in the Premier League.
Mikel Arteta typically plays out of a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is the most common setup in modern football. The formation allows Arsenal to deploy three attacking midfielders going forward, which can overwhelm opposing defenses. It has helped Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka create a ton of chances.
Even though Arsenal’s results have been poor over their last eight matches, their underlying metrics have actually been quite good. Arsenal are creating 1.62 xG per match, while only allowing only 1.08 xG per match. They created 3.70 expected goals in their last meeting with West Brom, so I expect the Gunners to have a ton of high quality chances against the Premier League’s worst defense.
The Baggies had a short spell of fantastic form, beating Chelsea on the road and Southampton at home in back-to-back matches. However, it was short lived as they’ve grabbed only two points in their last three matches. The Baggies are now starring relegation in the face because if they do not get three points from this match, they’ll be sent down to the second division of English soccer.
It’s hard to overstate how bad West Brom have been this season. The biggest issue is that they’ve failed to create any chances in front of net. For the season, the Baggies are averaging only 0.88 xG per match, which is the lowest rate in the Premier League.
Additionally, they’ve created only 13.92 xG in 17 away matches this season. So, I have a hard time seeing how the Baggies are going to break down a stout defense like Arsenal’s.
Things maybe wouldn’t be so bad for West Brom if their issues were reserved for one side of the pitch. However, that is not the case, as West Brom have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League at 1.91 xG per match. With Arsenal improving offensively, it’s likely going be a long day for the Baggies’ defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even though Arsenal played on Thursday, I think they’re undervalued in this spot. Their offense has been improving over the past few months, and they’ll be facing the worst defense in the Premier League, so I expect the Gunners to run rampant all over West Brom at the Emirates.
Therefore, I am going to back Arsenal’s spread of -1 at -132 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Arsenal -1 (-132)
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