Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Roma vs. Atalanta (Thursday, April 22)
Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images. Pictured: Duvan Zapata.
- Atalanta heads to Stadio Olimpico following its first Serie A win over Juventus since 2001.
- Roma has their eyes sets on their Europa League semifinal as their only way into the Champions League.
- See why Anthony Dabbundo likes the visiting side to come out with all three points.
Roma vs. Atalanta Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+130 / -162)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 12:20 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
AC Milan’s loss on Wednesday opened the door for Atalanta to move alone into second place, if La Dea can beat fading Roma on Thursday in the Italian capital.
Atalanta picked up a crucial three points at home against Juventus on Sunday on a late goal from Ruslan Malinovskyi in an otherwise even game. The win pushed them four points ahead of Napoli, who sit in fifth place.
Roma’s quest for a Champions League place via the league ended last weekend with their loss to Torino. They sit in seventh place, 10 points off of Atalanta with seven matches to go. However, Roma is into the Europa League semifinals. Winning that competition is now their best chance to get into Europe’s elite competition.
Injuries and regression has defined the second half of the Roma season. They’ve been successful in the Europa League but have fallen out of the top-four race in Italy. Before discussing Roma, we have to discuss who won’t be playing in this matchup.
Leonardo Spinazzola, Chris Smalling and Amadou Diawara are all key players who will not be available for Roma in this game on Thursday. Their defense is really shorthanded and a major reason they’ve defended so poorly in recent weeks. Napoli, Sassuolo, Bologna, Ajax and Torino all ripped apart Paulo Fonesca’s team.
They’ve struggled all year against the other top teams in the league as well. Roma has taken three points from nine games against the top six in Serie A. No wins, three draws and six losses. They’ve only won the expected goals battle in one of those games too.
Atalanta’s win against Juventus was historic for many reasons. One, it came on the same day that Juventus planned to join the European Super League, which has already come and left since those teams played on Sunday. Two, it was their first win in Serie A over Juve since 2001. Third, it pushed La Dea above the Old Lady in the standings.
Manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side won’t be winning the Serie A title, but their run over the last three seasons, given their budget and club size, is nothing short of remarkable. Atalanta is second in non-penalty xG difference, per Understat. They’re dominant in pressing statistics, create more big chances than any team in the league and average the second most shots and most shots on target in Italy.
Roma struggled to prevent Ajax from creating chance after chance in both leagues, and Atalanta is a much better version of the Dutch side. Roma’s pretty good at crossing defense, but they’ve vulnerable at being passed through. Atalanta is head and shoulders above the whole division in key passes, passes into the penalty area and progressive passes. Atalanta won the reverse fixture, 4-1 and won on xG 2.0-0.8 that day too.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Atalanta is focused on Serie A, while Roma will have one eye on its upcoming fixtures with Manchester United in the Europa League. This game is a much lower priority for them, and my numbers make this line Atalanta -125. For that reason, I’ll back the boys from Bergamo to take all three points away from home.
The away side is a nightmare matchup for Roma and should be able to easily pass through them and create big chances. Given the defensive regression from Roma, Atalanta is the last team they’d want to play right now.
Pick: Atalanta money line (-110 or better)