Tottenham vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Betting Preview: Back Tottenham with this Same Game Parlay
Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Richarlison
- Premier League squad Tottenham hosts Eintracht Frankfrut after drawing the German club last week.
- Brett Pund breaks down the matchup and offers his expert analysis.
- Read on to see where he's found value in the fixture.
Tottenham vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-160 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In a crucial match in Group D of the Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur hosts Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday night with the teams tied on points with three group-stage games remaining.
You don’t have to look too far back for the previous meeting between the clubs as they played to a 0-0 draw in Germany last week.
The Spurs were the better team that day, but they did not take their chances to secure a vital win on the road.
The German club did have a magical run last season that ended with winning the Europa League. However, I think this will be another game that the Premier League side will dominate.
For all of the negativity surrounding the Spurs in recent weeks, manager Antonio Conte’s team still finds itself in third in the EPL table and in firm control of its destiny to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League.
Tottenham plays two out of its three remaining UCL group games at home, starting with this fixture against Frankfurt.
Through the opening three matches, Conte’s side has the best xGDiff (+1.8) and the fewest expected goals allowed per 90 minutes (.633) in the group, according to fbref.com.
The issues haven’t been on defense for Spurs as they have struggled offensively with playmaker Dejan Kulusevski out of the lineup. Although he is also out for this match, I expect Tottenham to have enough offense without him in this game.
After securing qualification for the competition by winning the Europa League last season, this is Frankfurt’s first appearance in the top European competition.
The German club has not fared too badly either, beating Marseille and drawing against the Spurs to have four points coming into this match.
Manager Oliver Glasner’s team also has decent advanced metrics, winning the xG battle in two of the three group-stage games.
Glasner’s unit is led by Japanese attacker Daichi Kamada, who has six goals and a pair of assists in all competitions.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Tottenham is the clear side I want to get behind in this game, but I can’t justify the -190 moneyline odds being offered at BetMGM.
So, my best bet is a same-game parlay, pairing a Spurs victory with the total falling under 4.5 goals at -115 odds.
Although there have been struggles at times offensively, the same can't be said about Conte’s defense, which ranks fourth in the UCL in fewest expected goals allowed. This is also the same team that is tied with Manchester City for the fewest big scoring chances allowed (9) in the EPL, with only two of those coming at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The strong defensive unit has been one of the main reasons why only two of the Spurs’ 12 games have finished with at least five goals, with none of those coming in the UCL. Meanwhile, only a pair of Frankfurt’s fixtures this season have ended with five or more goals.
You can also look back at the stats from the meeting between these two sides last week. The Spurs won the xG battle 1.6-0.7 and created three big scoring chances compared to just one for the German club.
This is the right spot to back Conte’s team and I feel this SGP is the best value on the board.
The Pick: Same Game Parlay: Spurs ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (-115)