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West Ham vs Aston Villa Odds, Pick: Value on West Ham (Mar. 12)

West Ham vs Aston Villa Odds, Pick: Value on West Ham (Mar. 12) article feature image

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West Ham vs Aston Villa Odds

Sunday, Mar. 12
10 a.m. ET
USA Network

West Ham Odds


Aston Villa Odds

Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+110/ -132)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-110/ -114)
Odds via BetRivers. Get the latest soccer odds here.

West Ham looks to get themselves out of the relegation battle when they host Aston Villa.

The Hammers were throughly beaten 4-0 by Brighton last weekend at the Amex, which now puts them within one point of the drop zone. They also have to travel to Cyprus for a Europa Conference League match on Thursday, so this spot isn’t great for them. However, they have to take this match incredibly seriously, as this is one of the better spots on their schedule to pick up all three points.

Aston Villa secured a 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Saturday after getting an own goal in the first half and then playing the final half hour up a man after Cheick Doucouré got sent off. Unai Emery’s team is comfortably in the middle of the table and 10 points above the drop zone, so some complacency could set in as the season progresses.

West Ham

Listen, that was a terrible defensive performance from West Ham on Saturday, but in the previous seven matches, their opponents have created over 1.5 expected goals and they’re still fifth in npxG per match allowed. They also have been much better defensively at home than on the road. West Ham is allowing 1.08 xG per match at London Stadium versus 1.32 xG per match on the road. 

David Moyes side is very good at sitting in a low block and defending their penalty area. West Ham is near the bottom of the Premier League in a lot of pressing categories like PPDA, High Turnovers, and they’re even allowing the fourth most final third entries in the Premier League. However, their final third to box entry conversion rate is only 26.67%, which is the third-best mark in the Premier League. 

The West Ham offense is very good when the match becomes transitional, which is likely what this match is going to become. West Ham has the third-highest direct speed and players capable of pressing high and disrupting Aston Villa if they chose to play out of the back. 

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Aston Villa

Aston Villa held Crystal Palace to 0.2 xG, got an own goal and then Palace got a red card. That was about it in one of the more boring matches of the season. However, I still think the Aston Villa defense is quite bad. Ever since Stevenage knocked them out of the FA Cup, Aston Villa has conceded 14 expected goals in seven matches.

Now, Aston Villa has played a difficult schedule over that span, having to face both Arsenal and Manchester City, but there is no excuse for conceding 2.4 expected goals to Leeds, 2.6 to Leicester and 1.6 to Everton. In each of those three matches the same problems kept occurring for Aston Villa. They were incredibly poor in transition defense, which is a problem in this type of matchup.

I really am just not sure how the Aston Villa offense is going to consistently break down one of the best low blocks in the Premier League, unless they get at them in transition, which is kind of what West Ham wants. Aston Villa is also without one of their best attacking players in Philipe Coutinho, who is second on the team in progressive passes per 90 minutes and shot creating actions per 90 minutes. On top of that, Boubacar Kamara is also out and he’s somewhat become a rock in the middle of their midfield with the third-most tackles + interceptions. 

West Ham vs Aston Villa Pick

This is a really good buy low spot for the Hammers, who recently were blown out by Brighton. However, this is going to be a much different opponent

The Hammers are due for a ton of positive regression with a +1.6 xGD in 16th place in the table. They’ve also played much better at London Stadium than on the road with a +3.9 xGD, while Aston Villa has been poor away from Villa Park this season with a -6.3 xGD.

I have West Ham projected at -106, so I like the value on the Hammers on the moneyline at +128 (BetRivers).

Pick: West Ham +128

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