West Ham vs Chelsea Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Betting Guide
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West Ham vs Chelsea Odds
|West Ham Odds||+240|
|Total (Over / Under)|
-110 / -110
West Ham and Chelsea will meet for a London Derby after both drawing their opening match.
The Hammers notched a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth on the road in the opener, which, given the current state of the club, isn't a bad result.
They have lost a lot of key players in this transfer window, most notably Declan Rice, who was everything to their midfield. They drew Chelsea at home last season, so we'll see if they can get a result again this time around.
Chelsea drew with Liverpool in Mauricio Pochettino's first match in charge of the club. Chelsea have gone through a ton of turnover at the club and now with the additions of Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia the Blues have spent upwards of a billion dollars in the last three transfer windows.
With all of that turnover, it's going to take Chelsea time to find their true form, so they could get tripped up here in this London Derby.
West Ham are a club on the decline. They had the wonderful moment toward the end of last season winning the Europa Conference League, but since then it's been nothing but negativity.
Rice has left for a big price tag to Arsenal and his loss is absolutely catastrophic to the Hammers. He led the Premier League with 63 interceptions last season and is an elite pressing midfielder that can also defend incredibly well in transition.
Rice is incredibly good as a possession midfielder playing out from the back being able to control the tempo of matches, which is something he’s shown with regularity with the English National Team. He led the team with 240 progressive passes and 213 passes into the final third. The next-closest player in terms of passes into the final third was Lucas Paqueta, who now is under investigation for betting on West Ham matches.
With all of that being said, West Ham were an underrated team last year that in theory is due for some positive regression coming into this season.
They finished last season with a -13 goal differential, but only a -3.9 xG differential. Their backline was pretty solid, only conceding 1.27 npxG per 90 minutes, which was actually a better defensive mark than Chelsea and West Ham kept their entire backline in tact.
I am not so sure Chelsea are going to magically turn things around just because Maurico Pochettino is there.
The amount of transition that has happened in the club in just six months is insane. Kai Havertez, Mason Mount, Eduord Mendy, N’Golo Kante, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Mateo Kovacic, Christian Pulisic and César Azpilicueta have all left the club. Bringing in Caicedo and Lavia makes Chelsea an elite midfield, but they are still new to the club.
Pochettino will be an upgrade at manager. He’s someone who wants his team to play out of the back using quick transitions in possession, creating numerical advantages in certain parts of the pitch to break down the opposition.
However, they didn't really do a great job of defending against Liverpool. Even though the Reds only created 1.3 xG, they consistently had acres of space to operate in, which will be a problem against a primarily transitional team in West Ham.
The other thing that Mauricio Pochettino loves to do is utilize his fullbacks and get them forward in attack.
Reece James will be out with a hamstring injury for an extended period of time, which means that Chelsea lose their best defender in wide areas and one of their best ball progressors up the wing.
West Ham vs Chelsea
Pick & Prediction
One day Chelsea may become an elite side that thwarts lesser competition with ease. Right now they are in a transitionary period at the club, and this is the perfect time to pick them off.
West Ham were really good at the London Stadium last season, putting up a +2.7 xG differential, while Chelsea were very poor away from Stamford Bridge with a -6.7 xG differential.
These two clubs had pretty much the exact same underlying metrics last season, so in terms of Chelsea being an odds on favorite, the market is giving them way too much respect for all of the money they've spent in the transfer window.
I only have Chelsea projected at +130, so I like the value on West Ham +0.5 at -125.
Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-125)