Wimbledon 2019 ATP Monday Betting Preview: Backing Roberto Bautista-Agut to Start a Big Run in London
Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Roberto Bautista-Agut
- Round 1 of the Wimbledon 2019 starts Monday at 6 a.m. ET, so get your bets in early!
- Sean Zerillo previews the first-round action at the All England Club and suggests a few bets that have value.
Monday features 32 of the 64 Round 1 ATP singles matches, but the slate kicks off at 6 a.m. E.T., so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
You will also need to lock in your pre-tournament futures or prop wagers by then. I placed three futures (and have a fourth that I will recommend) on the ATP side of the draw, and have also locked in six sides and a parlay for Monday.
Wimbledon 2019 ATP Futures
The most obvious value bet on the Wimbledon 2019 board, that I didn’t place, is a prop wager: Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer vs. the field, at -172.
Those odds imply that one of the two will win the tournament 63% of the time – and the fair odds on that are probably closer to -200 (66.7%), or higher.
I hunted for juicier odds, and landed on a future for an exact final between Djokovic and Federer, at +300. Each was gifted a clean draw, and only Quarter 2 in this field appears to be wide open.
Returning finalist Kevin Anderson is the highest-seeded player in that quarter, but he suffered an elbow injury earlier this season, has an early test against Pierre-Hugues Herbert and might wear down from a lack of conditioning over the course of his matches.
I landed on Roberto Bautista Agut to win quarter 2 and that was before I read the fantastic ATP futures piece by my colleague Daniel J. Scotti, who gave out the Spainaird at 14-1.
I was able to get Bautista Agut at odds of 22-1, a number that I still see out there, and that’s ridiculous value on a player who succeeds on hard surfaces, reached the quarterfinals at the 2019 Australian Open, and has made the fourth round twice previously in this tournament (2015, 2017).
I also made a small futures wager on Felix Auger-Aliassime to win Wimbledon at 40-1. He’s going to win multiple slam events one day, and the grass might be his best surface.
Though his path to the final goes through Djokovic, FAA’s footwork is otherworldly and he has been dominating with his serve this grass season: ranking 5th on tour by holding 94.2% of his service games.
Monday ATP Bets, and Other Matches to Watch
To me, handicapping Wimbledon is a far more difficult endeavor than doing so for the Australian Open, French Open, or US Open.
“Grass season,” if you can even call it that, only lasts about a month – leaving a very small statistical sample to work with, and the faster speed on the grass courts leaves little margin for error for the players.
This generally leads to tighter, longer matches – especially when two players with big serves square off.
When the draw came out, there were about five ATP matches that I had circled as moneyline bets to make, and the next day my colleague Brett Farrenkopf sent out this tweet:
Wimbledon Card (Fri/Sat: +2.0, YTD: +3.74)
Men Monday: Copil -135, Jarry, -128, Majchrzak -105, Granollers +125, Caballes Baena +151, Popyrin/Edmund -109 Bemelmans +382 (.5)
Ladies and Tuesday threaded…
— Bretthalamow (@bmf1314) June 29, 2019
It’s like Brett was tweeting from inside of my head: Marius Copil, Marcel Granollers, Kamil Majchrzak, and Nicolás Jarry – we were 100% on the same page.
I had even planned to use Kyle Edmund as a parlay piece.
Copil is yet to make it out of the first round at Wimbledon, but the Romanian’s favoritism is telling when you consider his monster serve (151 mph) and his drawing a seeded clay specialist in Guido Pella. This will be an upset in the draw, but not in the betting markets.
Next let’s look at 6-foot-6 Nicolas Jarry. The Chilean has a powerful serve and forehand and the aggressive net game to be able to bully 35-year-old Italian Andreas Seppi.
Majchrzak is making his second appearance in the main draw at a major, but he’s in excellent form after dominating in qualifying, and Fernando Verdasco has lost in the first round at Wimbledon for four of the past five years.
With 33-year-old Spaniard Marcel Granollers, I’m going for slam experience and fresh legs over youth.
Granollers is looking to make the second round at Wimbledon for the first time since 2016, while Sonego is coming off a championship, at the Antalya Open in Turkey, over Miomir Kecmanovic.
Both Kecmanovic and Sonego look like solid Round 1 fades following those deep tournament runs and their subsequent travel to London – but I’d also tread with caution in going completely going against these rising youngsters.
As for other potential first-round parlay pieces to pair with British No. 1 Kyle Edmund (aside from Alexi Popyrin), Brett and I agreed upon the following players:
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Ivo Karlovic
- Jeremy Chardy
I already paired Edmund with Popyrin in a parlay and might do the same thing with each of the other three that I listed.
There are two other wagers that I made so far for Monday, the first involving clay-court specialist Pablo Cuevas vs. Bosnian No. 1 Damir Dzumhur.
Dzumhur hasn’t been in form in 2019 (5-10), but he has made the second round at Wimbledon for three consecutive years, with his previous two wins coming in straight sets.
Cuevas has won only one match at Wimbledon, as a lucky loser in 2009, and though this has the makings of a four or five-set match I’ll take the Bosnian at plus-money.
I also backed Roberto Bautista Agut on the adjusted game spread (-7.5) against Peter Gojowczyk.
These two have played four times previously and the Spainaird has dominated the head-to-head – only dropping one set against “GoJo” in a match that he still covered by nine games at Wimbledon 2017.
Bautista Agut is in great form, flattening grass-specialist Richard Gasquet (6-1, 6-4), and surging American Taylor Fritz (7-6, 6-0) before losing to Federer in three sets.
Bets (So Far) for July 1
- Marius Copil (-140) Moneyline
- Marcel Granollers (+125) Moneyline
- Kamil Majchrzak (-110) Moneyline
- Nicolás Jarry (-116) Moneyline
- Damir Džumhur (+110) Moneyline
- Roberto Bautista Agut (-7.5 +115) Game Spread
- 2-Way Parlay (-104): Kyle Edmund (-530) with Alexei Popyrin (-160)
Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Wimbledon betting card for Monday, July 1.