2021 Wimbledon Odds & Picks: Bets for Bautista Agut vs. Shapovalov & Korda vs. Khachanov (Monday, July 5)

2021 Wimbledon Odds & Picks: Bets for Bautista Agut vs. Shapovalov & Korda vs. Khachanov (Monday, July 5) article feature image
Credit:

Julian Finney/Getty Images. Pictured: Sebastian Korda.

  • The fourth round of Wimbledon begins on the Fourth of July as 16 players remain on the men's side.
  • Kenny Ducey is focusing on a pair of matches, including one involving America's future No. 1.
  • See if he is backing Sebastian Korda to advance to the quarterfinals below.

We’re onto the fourth round at Wimbledon, affectionately referred to as the “second week,” or the Round of 16. With that, the action is getting really, really good with some of the world’s best now meeting each other in their areas of the draw.

With plenty of great action taking place on Monday, it’s time we look into the matches with the most value.

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Denis Shapovalov vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

This is around the time in Grand Slams that Denis Shapovalov begins to crumble under the pressure, so I’m admittedly a bit nervous about backing him against one of the best groundstrokers in the world. With that being said, both men simply are trending in opposite directions at the moment.

Shapovalov is unquestionably one of the most talented players in the world, but his confidence and mental fortitude has always been what’s held him back from taking that final leap from great to elite. Confidence has not been an issue so far at the Championships, with some sweat-free wins including a walkover against Pablo Andujar. He’s yet to drop a set, and that’s simply an improvement upon an already-great grass season.

The Canadian is 7-2 on the surface so far, and Bautista-Agut enters at 4-2 following a couple short stints in the two tune-up tournaments prior to Wimbledon. He’s played two close matches in the last two rounds; one of which was a five-setter which drained him a bit physically, and the other a three-setter against Dominik Koepfer that was much closer than the score would indicate.

RBA is just skating by at the moment, and I don’t see Shapovalov donating breaks like those other two did. He’s truly living on the edge, and the Canadian seems to keep dominating as the matches go on. I’d make him a much bigger favorite with the form he’s in.

Pick: Shapovalov -139 (bet365)

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Sebastian Korda vs. Karen Khachanov

There’s nothing more American than backing one of the USA’s finest young talents to cap off a holiday weekend. Korda’s destined to be the No. 1 American man in short time, and it’s thanks to a remarkable mind for the game.

Korda had officially played just one grass court match before 2021, and despite not understanding the surface and having evident struggles in his first few matches, he’s just continued to win. His record now stands at 5-1 this grass-court season, and he’s picked up big wins over Alex De Minaur and the aforementioned Roberto Baustista-Agut. His ability to make adjustments and serve through pressure has made him a tough out, and I give him an edge over Khachanov.

I’ve eaten my words on Khachanov, who looks like he’s poised to make a run back to the top 15 with the way he’s playing. He’s played some excellent matches, but despite the fact that I’ve caught two losses fading him, I’m going to go back to the well.

The fact is, Khachanov has a history of mental lapses in his career, and we have seen them all season long leading into Wimbledon. Though his three matches have gone better, he will be facing a guy who competes harder than the rest of the lot which fell to Khachanov. Korda is relentless, and Khachanov doesn’t have the consistency necessary to withstand the American.

Korda proved against a pesky Dan Evans that he’s simply not fazed by being down in a hole, and I don’t see the moment or Khachanov’s rally tolerance being too much of an issue for Korda. I give him a significant edge in the mental battle, and that should be enough get him into the quarterfinals. I’m pleasantly surprised the oddsmakers haven’t gotten out of control with Korda’s odds, and I’m happy to back him near a pick ’em.

Pick: Korda -125

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