ATP Cup and Adelaide Tennis Odds and Best Bets: Why Cameron Norrie and Egor Gerasimov Have Value
Credit: Mark Kolbe, Getty. Cameron Norrie hits a backhand at the ATP Cup.
The ATP Tour rolls on with three tournaments holding matches on Wednesday evening.
Round robin play at the ATP Cup heads into its final day as matches between the United States/Britain, Canada/Germany and Russia/Italy will determine who gets the final two spots in the semifinals, where Spain and Poland await.
Two ATP 250s continue in Melbourne and Adelaide, and Rafa Nadal will make his return to the singles tour in the former.
Here’s where I see value in Wednesday’s matchups.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Cameron Norrie (-110) vs. Taylor Fritz (-110)
7:30 p.m. ET, ATP Cup
The American comes into this matchup with every ounce of momentum he could have. He followed a win against Felix Auger-Aliassime with a quality effort against Alexander Zvever, and Fritz seems to be recovering the type of form that carried him through the end of the 2021 season.
Norrie had a similar end to his 2021 campaign, pulling off a shocking title at Indian Wells and climbing into the ATP Finals as an alternate. However, the British number one suffered losses to the same players that Fritz faced and hasn’t looked as sharp as he was when the year finished.
Is that reason enough to hammer Fritz at a pick ’em price? I don’t think so.
A look at Fritz’s career splits reveals a consistent issue when facing lefties. Throughout his career, Fritz has a 43 percent winning percentage against southpaws while maintaining a 53 percent winning percentage against righties. In the past year that gap has been amplified with his run of form, as he’s won only 44 percent of his matchups with lefties in that span while winning 64 percent against right-handers.
That split hasn’t resulted in a big advantage in this head-to-head for Norrie as the pair are tied at four wins a piece, but it should give the Brit confidence that he has an inherent edge on his counterpart.
Norrie has also been limited by his lack of success in clutch points through his first two matches. While he’s converted just 2/10 of his break point opportunities (20 percent) his opponents have won 5/16 (31 percent). Flip those totals, and he’s won at least one match to this point.
Expect a more positive performance in this crucial match, and that makes Norrie a good option at this price.
Pick: Cameron Norrie -110 via DraftKings
Egor Gerasimov (-145) vs. Gianluca Mager (+115)
8:50 p.m. ET, ATP Cup
I was high on the Italian coming into the Aussie swing, and Mager still may deliver a highly successful month, but I’m not certain that his timing and rhythm are where they need to be just yet.
Against Francisco Cerundolo, a clay-courter who doesn’t necessarily excel on hard courts, Mager was inconsistent and outplayed on the ground. Cerundolo won 16 more points on return than Mager and won over 70 percent of the points behind both his first and second serve.
The difference for Mager was his 2/5 break point conversion rate as opposed to Cerundolo’s 1/5 number. Mager had the lone break in the third set, and that set him apart, but Gerasimov is an incredibly solid hard-courter who will pressure Mager even more than Cerundolo.
Qualifying wins for the Belarusian against Radu Albot and Henry Lamchinniah were followed up by an upset victory over Marton Fucsovics, one of the most reliable players on tour.
Gerasimov won over 50 percent of the points behind his first and second serve in each of the three matches, and with only five double faults in that period, an aggressive second serve is working at a very high level.
This is a heavy price to pay for Gerasimov when he doesn’t have a major edge, but the implied probability of 59 percent is a bit less than he should be given. I’ll eat the price here.
Pick: Egor Gerasimov -145 via PointsBet