Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem Betting Odds and Pick: Best Bets for the Australian Open Final
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open
Sunday features the ATP Australian Open Final, beginning at 3:30 a.m. ET on Sunday morning in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
Let’s examine today’s matchup, the 11th career head-to-head meeting between Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem.
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Australian Open Final Best ATP Bets
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Novak Djokovic (-363) vs. Dominic Thiem | O/U: 38.5
- Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Djokovic leads 6-4
Betting Odds History
History is on the line in Melbourne, as defending-champion Novak Djokovic looks to extend his record to eight for eight in Australian Open finals, while Dominic Thiem tries to win his first Slam title after making his first final at a hard court major (0-2 at Roland Garros)
Thiem has won four of the past five matchups (three wins on Clay) against Djokovic, including a victory at the 2019 ATP Finals — where he also defeated Roger Federer.
But he remains a sizable underdog to the Serb here, in a best-of-five Slam match at an event where Djokovic is 68-8 (89.5%) lifetime; and never lost a semifinal or final.
Fatigue should be a concern for the Austrian – during the fortnight, Thiem has played 378 more points, 56 extra games, and been on the court for about five and a half hours longer than his opponent.
That’s equivalent to having a couple of extra early-round matchups on his legs; and also consider that Djokovic had an extra day of rest between the semifinal and final.
Generally, the more well-rested player has performed better during the later stages of this tournament, and it seems unlikely that Thiem would be able to outlast Djokovic in a lengthy battle.
Nevertheless, this remains an intriguing stylistic matchup, and Thiem has the rare opportunity to defeat two members of the Big Three on his way to a Slam title.
To win this match, Thiem is going to need to continue to play his highly aggressive style of tennis and capitalize on any level drop from the Serb.
It seems rather unlikely to happen – Djokovic has dropped just one set in this tournament while playing with as much confidence as ever, rallying down from 2-5 in the first set against Federer to win in straights.
Meanwhile, Thiem looked shaky in his semifinal match against Alexander Zverev – dropping serve four times and prevailing in a couple of tiebreaks.
He also won all three tiebreaks against Rafa Nadal, and while you could credit the Austrian for his toughness in those big moments, you should question how dominant those victories were in hindsight.
He has the power to frustrate Djokovic, but will it hold up over five sets, against the best returner in the world, when he’s played so much taxing tennis?
Ultimately, I’m expecting a high level from Thiem early before the Serb starts to pick him apart defensively.
But I do expect tight proceedings early, and considering that I like Thiem to win a set, Over 3.5 Sets (-160) seems like the best bet.
I’m not interested in a game spread or total – as I think Thiem’s level could drop off in the later stages.
But I also wanted to hunt for some-plus money.
And I noticed that since Thiem’s first victory over Djokovic in 2017, the pair have played 16 sets and those finished 7-5 or 7-6 on nine occasions.
Furthermore, four of their past five opening sets between have gone to a tiebreak.
While I considered playing over 1.5 tiebreaks (+175), a 1st set tiebreak (+280), or 2nd set tiebreak (+250), I split a unit between four wagers; hunting for Djokovic or Thiem to win the 1st or 2nd set in a tiebreak.
In that scenario, you’ll turn a profit if either the first or second set goes to a tiebreak, with a chance to score big if Thiem pulls one out.
Bets (So Far) for Feb. 2
Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Feb. 2.
- Over 3.5 Sets (-160, 0.5 units)
- 1st Set, Djokovic Wins 7-6 (+400, 0.25 units)
- 1st Set, Thiem Wins 7-6 (+700, 0.25 units)
- 2nd Set, Djokovic Wins 7-6 (+400, 0.25 units)
- 2nd Set, Thiem Wins 7-6 (+700, 0.25 units)