2020 Australian Open ATP Day 9 Betting Picks & Odds: Will Djokovic, Federer Confirm Semifinal Clash?

2020 Australian Open ATP Day 9 Betting Picks & Odds: Will Djokovic, Federer Confirm Semifinal Clash? article feature image

Recep Sakar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images. Pictured: Roger Federer

Tuesday features two of the four ATP quarterfinal matchups. Still, since the tournament is played in Australia, the slate kicks off at 10:30 p.m. E.T. on Monday evening in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.

Let’s examine both of today’s matches, which includes Roger Federer vs. Tennys Sandgren, and Novak Djokovic against Milos Raonic. 

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Roger Federer (-944) vs. Tennys Sandgren | O/U: 32

  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rod Laver Arena
  • H2H: First Meeting

Sandgren makes his second quarterfinal appearance in Melbourne in the past three years, on the back of a fourth-round showing at Wimbledon and third-round appearance at the US Open – essentially giving the American his three best-ever Slam results in a row.

He continues to outplay his underlying metrics, especially in major events, and certainly shouldn’t be as of big of an underdog as the projection above would suggest.

Tennys has served exceptionally well in this tournament, while also boosting his return metrics – and he has, on paper, played about as competently as Federer has during the fortnight:

Opponents are just 5-for-34 in break opportunities against Sandgren, however, and Federer won’t be as apt to let such opportunities slip away.

Both men could also be quite fatigued after playing a bunch of long matches, and Federer’s ability to play such a condensed schedule remains a concern in the later stages of his career.

Ultimately, I expect the Swiss to get by Sandgren and win his quarter at the Australian Open for the 15th time. And he’ll do so without having had to face a top-35 player this time around.

The question is how quickly he takes care of business.

If you think that Sandgren can take a set, Federer to win 3-1 at +275 or better looks to be the best option, and over 3.5 sets at plus-money also looks to be a solid bet.

But the game spread and total seem a risky proposition with the potential variance for sets ending at either 7-6 or 6-0.

Novak Djokovic (-730) vs. Milos Raonic | O/U: 37.5

  • Time: 3:00 a.m. ET
  • Where: Rod Laver Arena
  • H2H: Djokovic leads 9-0

The head-to-head history here is hard to ignore, even though Raonic is playing some of the best tennis of his career.

Not only is he winless against Djokovic, but the Canadian has also won just two of 23 sets between them.

And while he’s been serving exceptionally well in this tournament, failing to drop a single service game, Djokovic has been nearly his equal:

Raonic’s big serve doesn’t have the same lasting effect on Djokovic, the best returner in the world, as it does on other players.

Other top defenders like Rafa Nadal (8-2) and Daniil Medvedev (2-0) have also had success against Milos.

But if he continues to serve as well as he has throughout this tournament, there’s no question that he’s dragging at least one set to a tiebreak.

As with the Federer match, if you think the underdog can take a set, Djokovic to win 3-1 at +275 or better looks to be a good option.

But I prefer over 10.5 games in the first set (+140), something this pair has accomplished in six of nine meetings. 

I would also consider betting on Raonic to win the first set (+250), Raonic to win the first set 7-6 (+650), or Djokovic to win the first set 7-6 (+350) if you want some juicier odds.

Bets (So Far) for Jan. 27-28

Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Jan. 27.

  • Djokovic / Raonic, 1st Set Over 10.5 Games (+140, 0.5 units)

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