2020 Australian Open ATP Day 10 Betting Picks & Odds: Can Thiem Blast Past Nadal Into Semifinal?
Fred Lee, Getty Images. Pictured: Dominic Thiem
Wednesday features the two remaining ATP quarterfinal matchups. Still, since the tournament is played in Australia, the slate kicks off at 10:30 p.m. E.T. on Tuesday evening in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
Let’s examine both of today’s matches, which includes Stan Wawrinka vs. Alexander Zverev, and Rafa Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem.
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Stan Wawrinka vs. Alexander Zverev (-145) | O/U: 41
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Zverev leads 2-0
Zverev remained in excellent form during his fourth-round victory over Andrey Rublev. However, it’s still an unknown as to whether the German can keep his cool against one of the most mentally tough and intimidating players on tour in Wawrinka.
The Swiss regarded his fourth-round victory over Daniil Medvedev as his best performance since returning from a 2017 knee injury. But he will need to overcome a younger, fresher set of legs and a dynamic young talent – whose only flaws crop up as mental errors.
Stan will be high on confidence, but fatigue will no doubt play a factor. Despite going just one and a half sets against John Isner, he’s been on the court nearly three hours longer than Zverev, while playing an additional 167 points and 35 games.
That has to take a toll on his 34-year-old body, and players have not fared well in this tournament after surviving five-set matches; Wawrinka has played two in the past six days.
Zverev has a big serve and excellent defensive abilities to frustrate Stan’s power-hitting style.
Landing his first serve will be key — Zverev has played so few second-serve points in this tournament. Though he’s winning them at a high rate, I’m concerned about previous instances where he’s lost the feel for his ball toss, routinely hit double faults, and his entire game disintegrates around that.
Wawrinka’s movement has been better, and he’s smashing the ball with authority. He also cannot be counted out in any Slam match – with a record 21 wins against Top-10 players in those four events.
He will have his moments, and despite the fatigue concerns, this should be an epic battle.
Zverev is in just his third Slam quarterfinal; he might be tighter and playing with less freedom now than he has in his past four matches, on the brink of his best result.
I think the German ultimately prevails in four or five sets, and I played both Zverev’s moneyline and the over on games; each for half a unit.
Rafa Nadal (-267) vs. Dominic Thiem | O/U: 39.5
- Time: 3:00 a.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Nadal leads 9-4
Despite a long head-to-head history, this will be just the second hard court meeting between the world’s two best clay-courters.
Their only other meeting on a hard surface came at the quarterfinal in the 2018 US Open, where Nadal prevailed in a fifth-set tiebreaker but retired in his semifinal match against Juan Martin del Potro after Thiem wore him out.
The Austrian’s hard-court game has improved since then, too, breaking through last year to win at Indian Wells and defeating all three of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Alexander Zverev at the ATP World Tour Finals.
And the new, slower court surface in Australia seems to suit his game.
Nadal looked a bit worn-down after his victory against Nick Kyrgios, seemingly limping off the court after nearly blowing the fourth set.
Meanwhile, Thiem looked to be peaking against Gael Monfils, controlling the match from start to finish with his defensive abilities and power from both wings. He never faced a break point.
Whoever wins, I’m expecting yet another long, physical battle between Thiem and Nadal – but I feel that this one is closer than the oddsmakers suggest.
I played both Thiem’s moneyline and also the over on games, and now expect to see just one of the big three make the final.
Bets (So Far) for Jan. 28-29
Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Jan. 28.
- Dominic Thiem (+257, 1 unit)
- Alexander Zverev (-141, 0.5 units)
- Nadal / Thiem, Over 39.5 Games (-110, 0.5 units)
- Wawrinka / Zverev, Over 40.5 Games (-118, 0.5 units)