Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti square off in the semifinals of the French Open on Friday, June 6. The match will tentatively start at 8:30 a.m. ET on court Philippe-Chatrier and will be broadcast on TNT, truTV and Max.
In the first men's Roland Garros semifinal on Friday, we have the two most in-form players of the clay season, in a match that could very well decide the tournament winner.
Find my French Open semifinal preview and Alcaraz vs Musetti prediction for Friday below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
- Alcaraz vs Musetti Pick: Four Sets To Be Played (+200)
My Alcaraz vs Musetti best bet is Four Sets To Be Played. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live French Open odds page.
Alcaraz vs Musetti Odds
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -625 |
| Lorenzo Musetti Odds | +425 |
| Over/Under | 34.5 (-118o / -120u) |
| Alcaraz-Musetti H2H | 5-1 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET | TNT, truTV, Max |
| Odds via BetMGM | |
Fernando Romero's Alcaraz vs Musetti Preview, Prediction
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
While Carlos Alcaraz was among the leading candidates for the title coming into the French Open, it wasn't without some questions.
The Spaniard had won in Monte Carlo (beating Musetti in the final), but went crownless at his home nation, falling to Holger Rune in the Barcelona Open final before withdrawing from the Madrid Masters with a right adductor muscle injury.
He dispelled many of those doubts by beating world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the Rome Masters final, but was that the best version of Sinner? The Italian was coming off a three-month doping ban, and while he seemed to have lost not an inch of pace in his return, some questions remained.
Few questions can be asked now, as Alcaraz is playing some of his best tennis ever, dispelling the top-20 American duo of Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul in back-to-back matches to seal his semifinal ticket.
Alcaraz has a 32-2 record on clay since last May, and aims to become only the third men's tour player this century to defend his Roland Garros crown after fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal and Gustavo Kuerten.
Lorenzo Musetti Betting Preview
In steps the challenger, one Lorenzo Musetti.
The Italian is lucky to remain in the tournament after he kicked a ball during his quarterfinal clash with American Frances Tiafoe, hitting (admittedly softly) a line judge in the process.
Musetti instantly apologized and later claimed the event helped him realize he was taking his mind off the match. Still, many questioned why he didn't suffer the same destiny as 24-time Grand Slam winner Novak Djokovic endured at the 2020 US Open, when he was disqualified for taking a ball out of his pocket and hitting it behind him, striking a line judge in the throat.
Regardless, the Italian went on to wrap up a fantastic performance against an in-form Tiafoe and remains in top form himself.
Being the only player to reach the semifinals at all three clay Masters, Musetti is now 19-3 on clay in 2025. He will jump to a career-high fifth in ATP singles rankings after the tournament, marking the first time he has reached the Roland Garros semifinals.
Alcaraz vs Musetti Predictions, Betting Analysis
For all the progress Musetti has made this season, and for all the results he's achieved, there are still questions about whether he belongs at that Sinner-Alcaraz level or if he remains just one step below.
Much like during the Big Three era with Roger Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, the current duo at the top seems out of reach for a line of incredibly skilled yet ever a bit less superhuman players than those at the top.
Unlike Sinner, Alcaraz has dropped sets in this tournament, but like the world No. 1, he has never seemed too out of control at any point. There has never been a moment of hesitation that looked like the beginning of a fall. The odds reflect that.
They also reflect that it's been three whole years since Musetti has beaten Alcaraz, on clay or elsewhere. Back-to-back defeats at the Monte Carlo final and Rome semifinal don't look good for the Italian, who never seemed to be in the same league in any of those clashes.
Yet, I don't think Musetti can be entirely ignored. He has been on fire, his serve a delight, his forehand more aggressive, and his backhand less of a weak link.
I have no doubt he's capable of taking a set from Alcaraz, as the Spaniard is sure to go missing for a moment in the match. The question is whether Musetti can capitalize on that and turn it into a win.
Pick: Four Sets To Be Played (+200)
