Reilly Opelka and Carlos Alcaraz square off in the first round of the US Open on Monday, August 25. The match will tentatively start at 8:10 p.m. ET and will be broadcast ESPN.
Find my US Open First Round preview and Alcaraz vs Opelka prediction for Monday night below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Reilly Opelka Prediction
- Alcaraz vs Opelka Pick: Under 34.5
My Opelka vs Alcaraz best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Alcaraz vs Opelka Odds
| Reilly Opelka Odds | +900 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -1400 |
| Over/Under | 34.5 (-115o / -120u) |
| Opelka-Alcaraz H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Monday, 8:10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open tennis, click here. | |
Carmine Carcieri's Alcaraz vs Opelka Preview, Prediction
Reilly Opelka Preview
After nearly being out two years because of hip and wrist injuries, Opelka is healthy again and playing solid tennis (23-17 overall this year).
The American is a far cry from his career-best ranking of 17th on the ATP Tour, but he's slowly moving up the rankings and currently sits at 66th.
Inconsistency has been the name of the game for Opelka this year, though.
He recorded a top-10 win over Alex de Minaur in Cincinnati, but then he dropped the next match to 71st-ranked Francisco Comesana. In the tournament before that in Toronto, he topped Tomas Machac before losing to Learner Tien in the following round. In Washington, 172nd-ranked Murphy Cassone took Opelka into three sets.
Serving is still the main strength for the 27-year-old Opelka, who's been considered one of the top bots on the tour for years alongside John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Milos Raonic, among others.
Carlos Alcaraz Preview
Alcaraz won the lone hard-court tournament he played this summer (Cincinnati), taking a 5-0 lead against Jannik Sinner in the final before the Italian retired.
The Spaniard is seeking his second US Open title and his first since 2022.
However, his draw isn't particularly favorable. Alcaraz would have to face Opelka, Mattia Bellucci, Luciano Darderi, Daniil Medvedev and Ben Shelton before the semifinals if the higher seeds were to hold.
And to that point, Alcaraz has had trouble early in Grand Slams before, including a five-setter against Fabio Fognini at Wimbledon and dropping a set against both Damir Dzumhur and Fabian Marozsan at Roland Garros.
Alcaraz vs Opelka Predictions, Betting Analysis
Opelka is one of the best servers on the planet and Alcaraz has typically had early troubles in Grand Slams, which are the two reasons why this total is high for a match that features the No. 2 overall seed in the opening round.
These two have never faced off and a healthy Opelka poses a serious test, especially in the first round in New York.
But I still think this total is too high.
First, I think Alcaraz will be more locked in to start this US Open. His draw means he can't underestimate any opponents, and I'm sure his team will keep the Fognini match in the front of his mind.
Second, Alcaraz is an elite returner, sitting at No. 3 overall in Return Rating on hard courts over the past 52 weeks and No. 2 overall on all surfaces. Sure, Opelka is a different test, but Alcaraz is well-versed in gaining and converting break chances (seventh in % of Break Points Converted).
Finally, even if Opelka keeps this close in the first or second set, Alcaraz has the conditioning and stamina advantage, meaning the American will eventually wear down.
I'm expecting something like 7-5, 6-4, 6-3 in favor of Alcaraz, meaning the Spaniard advances and we hit this under.
Pick: Under 34.5
