Tiafoe vs Korda Prediction, Pick, Odds for French Open

The third round begins from Roland Garros on Friday, May 30, and there are two matches I like from a betting perspective.

One match features two players — Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov — coming off of five-setters while another is an all-American clash between Frances Tiafoe and Sebastian Korda.

Here are my previews and Round 3 French Open predictions for Paul vs. Khachanov and Tiafoe vs. Korda.

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French Open Predictions, Picks, Odds — Third Round

Tiafoe vs Korda Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Frances Tiafoe and Sebastian Korda have played six times, with the former winning the first three meetings and the latter coming out on top in the last three.

In fact, Tiafoe hasn't beaten Korda since 2022 in Estoril — he's due for a victory against his fellow American. And coincidentally, that meeting came on clay.

Neither of these players have been particularly impressive on the dirt this season, with Tiafoe entering this tournament at 7-6 while Korda was 3-4.

Tiafoe has also struggled to have success in Grand Slams outside of the US Open, as he's just 4-9 at Roland Garros and has never advanced past the third round.

Not that Korda doesn't have any motivation (this is a major after all), but I think that added incentive for Tiafoe factors in here.

Tiafoe also looked superb in his second-round match against Pablo Carreno Busta, as he didn't face a single break point against the Spaniard in a straight-set win.

This match will be incredibly tight (the over is definitely in play for a potential five-setter), but I just trust Tiafoe more than Korda, who hasn't posted a top-50 victory in a major since the Australian Open in 2023.

Pick: Frances Tiafoe Moneyline (+102 via BetRivers)

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Paul vs Khachanov Odds

On paper, this matchup sets up well for Tommy Paul.

He's beaten Karen Khachanov in both of their head-to-head meetings, including a three-set victory at the end of April in Madrid. The American is having a solid campaign on clay as well (with a semifinal appearance in Rome), while Khachanov has just two wins in the top 50 on the surface this season.

Also, over the last 52 weeks, Paul ranks third in Return Rating on the ATP Tour on all surfaces, including a stellar fifth on clay. That's good news against Khachanov's biggest weapon: his serve.

But the reason I can't back Paul in this spot is I'm unsure of his fitness level at this point in the event.

Don't get me wrong — Paul is one of the best athletes on tour, but he looked out of sorts in his second-round, five-set match against Marton Fucsovics and later admitted he's dealing with some injury issues.

“I’ve been dealing with a bunch of things but just something in my lower ab I have been dealing with. I mean, for most of the match I was feeling it and then there at like two all in the fifth it started. I don’t even know if it was like one shot or something but it started bugging me worse,” Paul said in his post-match press conference.

Paul had to rally from down two sets to zero against Fucsovics, as he wasn't hitting the ball cleanly and struggled in his return games (especially against Fucsovics' first serve).

For that reason, I'll take Khachanov to advance.

Pick: Karen Khachanov Moneyline (-134 via BetRivers)