Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will play in the semifinals of the French Open on Thursday, June 5, at Court Philippe-Chatrier. The match will tentatively start at 9 a.m. ET and be broadcast on TNT, truTV, and MAX.
The World No. 1 and the four-time Roland Garros champion will meet in the most anticipated match of the French Open thus far — the "final" before the real final. The title could be decided here since the winner will be the favorite to lift the trophy on Saturday.
Find my Swiatek vs Sabalenka prediction in my French Open betting preview below.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Prediction
- Swiatek vs Sabalenka Pick: Swiatek +1.5 | Over 22.5 Parlay (+186, DraftKings)
My Swiatek vs Sabalenka best bet is on the Swiatek spread and the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live French Open odds page.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Odds, Spread, Over/Under, H2H
| Iga Swiatek Odds | +115 |
| Aryna Sabalenka Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 (-105o / -140u) |
| Spread | Swiatek +1.5 (-130) / Sabalenka -1.5 (-110) |
| Swiatek vs Sabalenka H2H | 8-4 |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, 9 a.m. ET | TNT, truTV, MAX |
| Odds via BetMGM | |
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Preview, Prediction
Iga Swiatek Betting Preview
This is where we finally find out which version of Iga Swiatek this is. Is she the same one who won the past three Roland Garros (and four in her career), or the diminished version of 2025?
For the most part, Swiatek has proven she is still the player to beat in Paris. She cruised in her first three matches, but the fourth round gave her something to worry about when Elena Rybakina took the first set 6-1.
The difference in that match was the service game. Rybakina excelled, especially with her first (86% of points won), and Swiatek did not get to 50% with hers. Against Sabalenka, such a difference would be catastrophic.
Swiatek bounced back and beat Rybakina, and then defeated Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals in straight sets (6-1, 7-5).
The Pole should profit from long rallies and remain aggressive with her quick forehand to force Sabalenka to cover ground. Swiatek knows her opponent well and should not stray too much from her previous strategy.
Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview
Aryna Sabalenka improved her 2025 record to 39-6 after beating Qinwen Zheng on Tuesday. The World No. 1 looks to add her fourth title of the year and the first Roland Garros of her illustrious career, which already boasts two Australian Opens (2023, 2024) and one US Open (2024).
With everything going according to plan, she now has to face Swiatek. To be the champion, she must defeat the reigning champion.
Sabalenka still hasn't dropped a set in this tournament, with her more challenging moments being a 7-5 set against Amanda Anisimova in the fourth round and her tiebreak with Zheng in the quarterfinals.
In that first set, Sabalenka didn't do great with her first serve (64% of points won) but held her own with the second (73%).
Zheng also complicated things by converting her only two break-point chances. Nevertheless, Sabalenka improved her first serve as the game progressed, and prevailed 7-6(3), 6-3.
Her service game could be the key to this match against Swiatek. She must give her opponent the fewest break-point chances she can manage.
Swiatek vs Sabalenka Predictions, Betting Analysis
The head-to-head favors Swiatek (8-4). Sabalenka has won mostly on hard courts, as you would expect, but also once on clay (Madrid, 2023).
The French Open champion has won five times on clay and three on hard court.
However, they have only met once at a Grand Slam tournament. In 2022, at the US Open, Swiatek came out on top 3-6, 6-1, 6-4.
Swiatek has the head-to-head advantage, and Sabalenka has the momentum, which also puts her slightly ahead in the odds. This is her best shot at taking Swiatek out of the way and winning the French Open, and it seems she might be able to pull it off.
For a parlay, however, there is a better choice. If Swiatek wins at least a set, she could end up covering the spread and the over.
Pick: Swiatek +1.5 | Over 22.5 Parlay (+186, DraftKings)
