July 5th Wimbledon Odds, Picks | Thiem vs Tsitsipas, Davidovich Fokina vs Fils
Julian Finney/Getty. Pictured: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
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The first round of Wimbledon continues on Tuesday morning from the All England Club, and while there are fewer obvious underdog spots, there are still a couple of good ones on the board on July 4th.
Let's get into how to bet Dominic Thiem vs Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Arthur Fils.
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Wimbledon Odds & Picks
Dominic Thiem (+370) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (-500)
6 a.m. ET
In an ironic twist, it's been the faster surfaces which have been better to Dominic Thiem ever since his comeback. A man who was once pigeonholed as a clay court specialist has gone 16-15 on hard courts and 20-23 on clay over the last two seasons. He's simply worn down as rallies have gone on and has been able to find success when his big forehand is in its most devastating environment.
Thiem has a losing record on grass for his career at 14-16, but his opponent is just 21-16 on grass for his career and enters Tuesday's match at an awful 2-4 this summer on the surface, including an exhibition.
Tsitsipas's grass game was always suspect, and it wasn't until last season where he finally found success playing on it. That was back when he was a much more confident player; he's simply looked lost mentally ever since he stepped on the court to face Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open. In recent weeks, he's lost to Dusan Lajovic, Richard Gasquet and Yannick Hanfmann — all of which are very bad losses.
So, I think this match is a lot more even than the odds would indicate. Thiem owns a 5-4 record against Tsitsipas for his career and should come into this one with plenty of confidence given the state of his opponent right now. I think he'll stun the Greek early and turn this one into a match.
Pick: Thiem +5.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-145) vs Arthur Fils (+120)
10:15 a.m. ET
It's become a meme at this point to remind folks that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was once the Boy's Singles champion here at Wimbledon, and he has certainly proven he can win on this surface with a big upset against Hubert Hurkacz last year. We can't forget that he has had success on this surface, but we surely can't respect him this much.
Fils, in many ways, is a better player than Davidovich Fokina and should be expected to lap the Spaniard in the next year or two. He's five years younger than Davidovich Fokina, yet he's already won his first career title this year and has beaten some of the world's best. He doesn't devastate with any of his weapons but has a strong mental game and plays a consistent brand of tennis.
I think Fils should win the mental war of attrition here against a player who has earned a reputation for poor shot selection and erratic play on court. I trust Fils a heck of a lot more, and while the Spaniard did just beat the Frenchman on clay at the French Open I think this could be a friendlier environment for Fils considering his hard court success this year.
Pick: Fils ML (+120 via DraftKings)