Taylor Fritz and Tomas Machac square off in the fourth round of the US Open on Sunday. The match is tentatively scheduled to start at 3:00 p.m. ET on Louis Armstrong Stadium and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Fritz is eyeing another US Open final after an incredible run last year, but the road gets tougher in the Round of 16. The American faces a real challenge in Machac, who has been playing lights-out tennis through three rounds.
Find my Fritz vs Machac prediction and US Open pick for Sunday, August 31, below.
Taylor Fritz vs Tomas Machac Prediction
- Fritz vs Machac Pick: Fritz -3.5 (-135)
My Fritz vs Machac best bet is on Taylor Fritz to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Taylor Fritz vs Tomas Machac Prediction, Odds
| Fritz Odds | -250 |
| Machac Odds | +190 |
| Spread | Fritz -3.5 (-135), Machac +3.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | 40.5 (-115o / -125u) |
| Fritz-Machac H2H | 2-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via BetMGM | |
Carlos Avilan's Taylor Fritz vs Tomas Machac Preview, Prediction
Fritz Betting Preview: American Knocking on the Door
Last year, Taylor Fritz stood on the doorstep of his first Grand Slam victory by reaching the final at the US Open. Jannik Sinner stopped him from getting it, but the American is ready to try again.
Fritz reached the quarterfinals in New York in 2023 and also played in this year's Wimbledon semifinals, so he's inching closer to tennis' upper echelon where only Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and maybe still Novak Djokovic reside.
Fritz's hard-court season could not quite match his success on grass this year — he has five ATP titles on each surface, totaling 10 — but he still managed to reach the quarterfinals and semifinals in Washington and Canada.
Thus far at the US Open, Fritz has only given up a set in each of the last two rounds, but opposition will be much tougher from now on.
If he defeats Machac, the road to another final will go through Djokovic/Struff in the quarterfinals and probably Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Machac Betting Preview: US Open Surge
Tomas Machac has already matched his best performance at a Grand Slam after also having reached the fourth round last year in New York.
This year, he won his first title on the tour at the ATP 500 in Acapulco on hard court, and made it to the 20th spot in the rankings in March.
Throughout his career, this surface is where he performs at his best, boasting a 58.1 winning percentage. However, after Wimbledon, he had a poor hard-court season, losing his first match in Canada and Cincinnati.
Machac, however, suddenly began playing out of his mind at the US Open, winning all nine sets played so far. That includes victories against Joao Fonseca and Ugo Blanchet in the second and third rounds, respectively.
Machac's likelihood of winning this match against Fritz is 30%, according to the US Open website's Slam Tracker, but playing like he has this week, that number should be higher.
Fritz vs Machac Prediction, Betting Analysis
Fritz has been serving better each round, going from 11 aces to 20 in his last match (with 84% of first-serve points won), and for a baseline player who does not come up to the net so much, he's been more aggressive this time around.
Machac, on the other hand, loves to go to the net and challenge his opponent by changing tactics and speeds. He is not a powerful server, but he is quite adept at defending and covering ground. This week, the Czech has also made very few unforced errors, which could complicate things for Fritz if the American is not in top form.
The head-to-head favors Fritz 2-0, but the most recent encounter ended with Machac retiring in the second set after beating the American in the first set at this year's United Cup semifinal. The first matchup was in 2020, at Roland Garros, and it went the distance, with Fritz taking the first, second and fifth sets.
With a better serve and all-around game, Fritz should prevail in front of his home crowd, but it will take a lot of effort if the Czech sustains his current form.
Pick: Fritz -3.5 (-135, BetMGM)
