Thursday ATP Tennis Odds and Picks: Best Bets for Antwerp and Moscow Events (Oct. 20)
Credit: Matt King, Getty. Pedro Martinez hits a backhand at the 2021 Australian Open.
European indoor hard court tennis rolls on this Thursday with nine matches set to be played across Antwerp and Moscow.
Here is how I’ll be betting the long day of tennis.
Match times are subject to change.
Filip Krajinovic (-260) vs. Pedro Martinez (+205)
4:00 a.m. ET, Kremlin Cup
The Serbian comes into the match on the back of a solid tournament in Indian Wells.
Krajinovic was able to get by the in-form Marcos Giron in impressive fashion before pushing world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev to a tiebreaker in the second set of their match.
Martinez has also been playing solid tennis in recent weeks. He won two matches on the indoor hard courts of Sofia and throttled Roberto Marcora in Indian Wells.
His first-round opponent Guido Pella retired after the first set of the duo’s match, but Martinez was in control of it, taking the aforementioned set 6-2.
Both players typically excel on slower surfaces, but the courts in Moscow are playing relatively fast. It’s a vast difference from the incredibly slow courts that were used in Indian Wells and that should work to Martinez’s advantage.
The Spaniard has had more time on the speedy Moscow courts and he’s shown this year that he’s very capable of competing well on similar surfaces.
A first round win and a solid battle with Andrey Rublev at the US Open, as well as two wins at Wimbledon, show he’s going to be comfortable in Moscow, and the level of his tennis is far closer than these odds give him credit for.
Back Martinez at an excellent price that I would consider anywhere above +170.
Pick: Pedro Martinez +205 via FanDuel
Aslan Karatsev (-275) vs. Egor Gerasimov (+220)
8:30 a.m. ET, Kremlin Cup
Another great opportunity to get on an underdog comes with Gerasimov, who will love the surface in Moscow as much as anyone.
The Belarusian has an even or sub-.500 record on each surface the past two years — with the one exception being indoor hard courts, where he is a combined 22-11 over the last two seasons.
In contrast to those numbers, Karatsev only has a losing record on one surface in 2021, that being indoor hard courts. Though he’s only played one match, he didn’t look entirely comfortable against Emil Ruusuvuori. In 2019, he similarly only had a sub-.500 winning percentage on indoor hard courts.
While Karatsev’s game is far different in 2021 than it has ever been, with the Russian playing with immense confidence and feel, he still hasn’t mastered the surface.
Gerasimov has the ability to exploit Karatsev by taking the initiative in points and being willing to take risks.
If he’s able to pressure Karatsev, particularly on the forehand, Gerasimov is solid enough on both wings to remain consistent in points and force Karatsev to string together quality shots.
On serve, Gerasimov is even more dangerous. The world No. 105 had a 1.6 or better ace-to-double fault ratio in each of his first three matches in Moscow (including qualifiers) and he’s held 80% of his service games on the week.
This shapes up to be a very tough opponent for the favored Karatsev, so the match projects to be another good price for an underrated player.
Pick: Egor Gerasimov +220 via Bet365