Tommy Paul and Elmer Moller square off in the first round of the US Open on Tuesday, August 26. The match will start at 8:10 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
The American Paul, now pain free and healthy, will try to regain the form that took him to the quarterfinals of the first two Grand Slams of 2025.
Find my US Open First Round preview and Paul vs Moller prediction for Tuesday below.
Paul vs Moller Prediction
- Paul vs Moller Pick: Under 29.5 (-115)
My Paul vs Moller best bet is Under 29.5 total games. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live US Open odds page.
Paul vs Moller Odds
| Tommy Paul Odds | -2000 |
| Elmer Moller Odds | +950 |
| Spread | Paul -9.5 (+105), Moller +9.5 (-150) |
| Over/Under | 29.5 (-120o / -115u) |
| Paul-Moller H2H | 1-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 8:10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Tommy Paul and Elmer Moller Preview, Prediction
Tommy Paul Betting Preview
In 2025, Tommy Paul became the first American since Andre Agassi in 2003 to advance to the Australian Open and Roland Garros quarterfinals in the same season.
He reached a career-high 8th position in the ATP rankings. Despite missing some time due to abdominal and adductor issues, he was geared up to make headlines again at Wimbledon when another injury held him back.
A "pop" was all he heard, and he continued playing his second-round match against Sebastian Ofner. Paul had won the first set 6-1, but ended up losing in four. Through an MRI, he later discovered that pop was a ruptured tendon.
The Voorhees, N.J., native returned this month at the Cincinnati Masters 1000. Although he wasn't able to prepare extensively in this hard-court season, Paul is now without health issues and looking forward to his favorite tournament: the US Open.
Elmer Moller Betting Preview
A 1-6 record on the tour this year not only tells you the level of Elmer Moller, but also points out his scarce experience in major events.
The Dane has mostly played ATP 250 tournaments and challengers throughout his career, and his only two Grand Slam appearances were first-round exits, both in 2025.
He lost to an American player both times. At Wimbledon, it was Frances Tiafoe who beat him in three sets: 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. Before that at Roland Garros, his opponent was Paul.
In Paris, Moller won the first set on a tiebreak 7-6(5) before Paul took the next three 6-2, 6-3, 6-1.
Paul vs Moller Prediction, Betting Analysis
Hard courts are Paul's preferred surface and where he most often succeeds, having won three of his four career ATP titles on the surface.
He's got a semifinal and a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open and two consecutive fourth rounds here in Flushing Meadows.
Of his 27 wins this year, 14 were on hard courts, where he ranks ninth overall in the ATP Elo Ratings compared to Moller's 209th spot.
If Paul is healthy and without foot concerns, anything other than a straight-sets victory would be a surprise.
Pick: Under 29.5 (-115, DraftKings)
