The first round of the 2025 US Open kicks off from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on Sunday, Aug. 24, and there are plenty of matches to like from a betting perspective. Let's look at a pair of US Open matches below.
Here are my Day 1 US Open predictions for Jakub Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry and Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech.
US Open Predictions — Day 1
Jakub Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry Odds
| Jakub Mensik Odds | -300 |
| Nicolas Jarry Odds | +225 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 (-120o / -110u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
It's been a quiet road to the US Open for Czech star Jakub Mensik, who has largely cooled off since storming to his first ATP Masters 1000 title in March at Miami. He's suffered back-to-back second-round eliminations at Toronto and Cincinnati, where he retired due to illness while trailing 2-6, 1-2.
Things haven't been much better for Nicolas Jarry.
The 29-year-old Chilean showed he has the game to shock a few favorites at Wimbledon, where he completed a surprise run to the Round of 16. Still, he's winless since then, with first-round losses at Kitzbühel, Cincinnati and Winston-Salem.
While neither player arrives as a favorite to win the title, Mensik can still be seen as a dark horse. His powerful, hard-hitting game bodes well for U.S. hard courts, as his 19-8 record for the season shows. He's been serving at a rate of 13.7 aces per game, more than enough to hold his own against Jarry.
Pick: Mensik ML and Under 40.5 (+120 via DraftKings)
Roberto Carballes Baena vs Arthur Rinderknech Odds
| Roberto Carballes Baena Odds | +140 |
| Arthur Rinderknech Odds | -185 |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-125o / -110u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Sunday, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
It's not been a good 2025 season for Roberto Carballes Baena, who's yet to push into a round of 16 at the ATP Tour-level since Marrakech in April.
Still, it looks like hard courts have been his favorite in 2025, with a record of 8-9 and pushing to the second round in Toronto and Cincinnati.
Arthur Rinderknech, while not flying, has been in much stronger form. He reached the quarters at the Queen's Club Championships, made it all the way to the third round in Wimbledon and even took former world No. 2 Casper Ruud out of Cincinnati.
Despite good hard-court form, Carballes Baena remains a clay-court specialist who benefits from long rallies and high-bouncing balls — he'll get neither on New York's fast courts against Rinderknech's flat shots.
The Frenchman is the favorite for a reason and he should have no issues moving past the Spaniard.
Pick: Rinderknech ML and Under 38.5 (+162 via DraftKings)
