The first round of the 2025 US Open continues at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center with Day 3 action on Tuesday, Aug. 26.
Here are my Day 3 US Open predictions for Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Alexander Bublik vs Marin Cilic.
US Open Predictions — Day 3
Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Odds
| Lorenzo Musetti Odds | -215 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Odds | +160 |
| Over/Under | 41.5 (-125o / -110u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 11 a.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
It's not been an easy transition to fast courts for world No. 1 Lorenzo Musetti.
After reaching the semifinals at Roland Garros, the Italian's season went off the rails as he was eliminated in the first round at Wimbledon, where he was defending semifinalist points. The move to North America did very little for his results, with first-round eliminations at Washington and the Cincinnati Masters 1000, either side of a Toronto Masters 1000 second-round appearance.
Things haven't been exactly wonderful for Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard either.
The big-serving Frenchman has had the bulk of the wins in his 4-4 North American record courtesy of a push into a relatively weak Winston-Salem draw. While he'll always give players a run for their money on a hard court, he's far from the dark horse he was just 12 months ago.
The Italian leads the head-to-head tally 2-0, with both wins interestingly coming on grass, a surface that should, in theory, give the edge to the Frenchman.
It should be more of the same this time around as I expect Musetti to turn his hard-court season around. But against a big server like Mpetshi Perricard, it won't be quick and painless.
Pick: Musetti ML and Over 41.5 (+166 via DraftKings)
Alexander Bublik vs Marin Cilic Odds
| Alexander Bublik Odds | -225 |
| Marin Cilic Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 39.5 (-125o / -105u) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 12:10 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Alexander Bublik has undoubtedly been one of the players of the season so far, putting two top-10 players out of contention at the French Open before beating world No. 1 Jannik Sinner on his way to the title in Halle.
Since then, Bublik has picked up two further titles at Gstaad and Kitzbühel in July, but that was on clay, and he's yet to take part in any hard-court events since the Miami Masters 1000 in March.
It's the same deal with Marin Cilic.
The former world No. 3 picked up his second ATP Challenger-level title of the year at Nottingham, and then went on to upset world No. 4 and home favorite Jack Draper in the second round at Wimbledon. It was a triumphant return for the Croat after a four-year absence at the tournament, but he has been away from action since falling to Flavio Cobolli in the round of 16.
Cilic leads the head-to-head tally 3-0, but they've never matched up on a hard court, and the last meeting was in 2022. With both players arriving as unknown quantities, I'm inclined to go by recent form, and Bublik has undoubtedly been the better of the two.
Unless the Kazakh reverts to his erratic, pre-2025 self, he should have no issue overcoming the 36-year-old Cilic.
Pick: Bublik ML and Under 40.5 (+128 via DraftKings)
