US Open Women’s Quarterfinals Betting Previews: Bencic vs. Vekic, Andreescu vs. Mertens
Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Bianca Andreescu
Belinda Bencic (-179) vs Donna Vekic (+146)
12 p.m. ET, ESPN
All odds via Pointsbet and current as of 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Belinda Bencic enters the quarterfinals following one of the biggest and most impressive wins of her career, beating No. 1 Naomi Osaka 7-5, 6-4. Donna Vekic, meanwhile, is in the best form of her career and fought off a match point to beat big-serving Julia Goerges 6-7, 7-5, 6-3.
Following a massive win like Bencic’s I do worry a bit about a let down, both physically and mentally, but she has put runs together in big tournaments before. Earlier this year she defeated Aryna Sabalenka, Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina and Petra Kvitova in Dubai.
Bencic’s most impressive performance came in 2015 when she bested Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic, Serena Williams and Simona Halep in Toronto. The Swiss has proven she can overcome a let down spot.
This is uncharted territory for Vekic. She’s made eight finals in lower-level WTA events, going 2-6. The quarterfinals at the US Open is obviously much different from any of those tournaments.
The two things Vekic has going for her is that she’s playing the best tennis of her career and she’s been incredibly steady. She’s been able to keep her emotions in check all year long.
This is the fourth meeting between Bencic and Vekic, with Bencic owning a 2-1 record, though Vekic won the most recent meeting at the 2019 French Open.
Bencic has the advantage in this matchup in terms of talent and style. Her game fits the hard courts of the US Open better than Vekic’s. I also think Bencic should benefit from playing Naomi Osaka last round as Vekic plays a similar type of game to Osaka. She has a powerful game and looks to end points quickly by playing with a small margin of error.
Bencic was able to read Osaka’s serve to near perfection on Monday and I don’t think she’ll have much trouble with Vekic’s serve.
Vekic has the talent and power to win some big points with ease, but I believe the slower hard courts help Bencic gets to balls and construct points to her advantage.
I make Bencic a -170 favorite for this match, so this line is pretty accurate in my eyes. Given Bencic’s form I have a difficult time seeing Vekic beating her, but nerves creep up at times and Bencic has been emotionally volatile in the past to her detriment.
Bianca Andreescu (-193) vs Elise Mertens (+155)
7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both Andreescu and Mertens benefited from weak draws. Mertens hasn’t had to face anybody ranked higher than No. 60 in the world and Andreescu’s only hurdle was getting by Caroline Wozniacki, who is far from her peak.
Even so, both players have looked impressive in Queens. Mertens has yet to drop a set and hasn’t lost more than six games in a match. That should change Wednesday.
Andreescu has also excelled at the Open but she has had a few hiccups. In addition to not being at her best against Wozniacki, the Canadian dropped the second set to Taylor Townsend and was frustrated by the American’s serve-and-volley game. Andreescu will need to step things up if she wants to contend with Mertens.
Both of these players feature a similar game. Neither one has the strongest serve, though Mertens probably has the edge on accuracy. Both ladies will want to extend rallies and put their opponents in precarious positions to set up winners. Andreescu has the better all-around game once rallies get started, but Mertens may be a bit of a better mover around the court, but Andreescu has a more powerful game.
This match is set up to be very competitive. I make Andreescu a -160 favorite, so the line may be a bit too high, but I am going with the Over 21.5 games or you could play the Over 2.5 Sets at +150.