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Wednesday ATP Tour Odds & Predictions: Picks for Mager vs. Sousa & Vukic vs. Musetti (Feb. 2)

Wednesday ATP Tour Odds & Predictions: Picks for Mager vs. Sousa & Vukic vs. Musetti (Feb. 2) article feature image
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Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Alexander Vukic hits a forehand at the Australian Open.

Three tournaments on the ATP Tour keep rolling on Wednesday, though the match schedule is a bit limited as some players have a day off.

Nonetheless, I believe that the best opportunities to find value come at the Tata Open in Pune, India, where there are two favorites that are being underpriced.

Here are my best bets for Wednesday’s slate of ATP tennis.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Gianluca Mager (-192) vs. Joao Sousa (+142)

3:50 a.m. ET

While the Italian hasn’t played great tennis in 2022, Gianluca Mager played well enough to warrant a greater favorite status than he’s getting here.

Wins against Egor Gerasimov and Francisco Cerundolo down under were coupled with three tough losses, including a rematch of the first matchup, but the other two came to Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev, two of the better hard court players in the game.

Joao Sousa comes into this match having gotten through a major battle in his first round, defeating wild card Arjun Kadhe in three tight sets. That’s a concerning sign for Sousa, however, as the 28-year old Indian is ranked just 776 in the world, and Mager presents a much stiffer challenge.

He picked up six Tour-level wins on indoor hard courts in 2021, and his 78 percent service games won number on the year towers over Sousa’s 65 percent clip.

Mager should be able to hit through the Portuguese, and Sousa should have trouble getting free points, so the matchup just doesn’t project well for him on paper. Of course, form changes rapidly in this sport, but purely from a numbers perspective you have to like the value that you can get on Mager.

Pick: Mager -2.5 games (-110 via FanDuel)

Aleksandar Vukic (-145) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+113)

5:10 a.m. ET

This is another situation where I’m looking for form to carry over in a big way.

Lorenzo Musetti has won just six hard court matches in main or qualifying draws on Tour since March of 2021, and he lost both of his matches in Australia before arriving in Pune.

While those losses came to in-form players in Taro Daniel and Alex de Minaur, he’s not going to love his matchup here with Vukic, who has been growing in confidence since the latter half of 2021.

He’s 4-3 on the year with wins against Lloyd Harris in Melbourne and Hugo Grenier in Pune. Vukic wasn’t at his best in his first round match with Grenier, but given that he played nearly as poorly as he could and still came out on top, a positive move can be expected.

Vukic’s 57 percent first serve rate was his worst of the year, but he still registered seven aces, more than Musetti has in seven combined sets this year.

The service edge goes to Vukic, but the ground game won’t be a weakness in this matchup for the Aussie either. He should be fine in forehand-to-forehand rallies, and a reliance on the slice from the backhand side could cause some issues for Musetti.

Overall, I’m okay taking this hefty price given the context that is at hand.

Pick: Vukic -145 via PointsBet

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