2021 Wimbledon Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Andy Murray, More Day 5 Matches (Friday, July 2)
TPN/Getty Images. Pictured: Andy Murray.
- Day 5 of Wimbledon is already upon us, with third-round action set to begin Friday.
- Local favorite Andy Murray is among the players on the schedule today, and he's outperforming expectations.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down his matchup and two more, below.
If you can believe it, we’ve already made it to the third round at Wimbledon. The fans and players have sat through multiple rain delays and experienced a bevy of emotions so far, and it’s only been four days.
Play resumes early Friday morning at the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, and I’ve picked out some bets I see some great value in.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Karen Khachanov
I never thought a year ago I’d be waxing poetic about all the hard work Frances Tiafoe is putting in, but here we are. The uber-talented American who seemed to hit a wall of complacency after his quick rise has been grinding all summer in preparation for Wimbledon.
After Tiafoe skipped his favorite surface, hardcourts, to play months and months of clay-court tennis, his stay at Roland Garros lasted all of one day. He took a similar approach last month by not only winning some matches at Queen’s Club, but actually dropping down to the Challenger level to win a grass-court tournament. He’s got his sights set on a deep run here, and I believe it continues against the out-of-form Khachanov.
The Russian had an awful clay season, and followed it up with some unconvincing wins to get to this point. He took down Tiafoe in five sets back at Wimbledon 2018 in their only meeting, but not only is the American better than he was back then, Khachanov is objectively worse.
His forehand has abandoned him at times, and those flat backhands from Tiafoe sure should ask plenty of questions of Khachanov’s groundstroking. He was able to overcome another flat American hitter in the first round in Mackenzie McDonald, but Tiafoe offers a bit more power, reflexes and touch, which should really make life difficult on the Russian.
Pick: Tiafoe -145 at BetMGM
Dan Evans vs. Sebastian Korda
Yes, it’s time we bet on another American man — because that’s never gone wrong before!
All kidding aside, this kid’s pretty special. It’s wild to hear so much positive talk about a player with no real physical talent or big weapon, but that’s been the case with Korda. Simply put, he competes, he works incredibly hard, and he stays focused throughout the match.
Sure, Korda can construct points beautifully, win a bunch at the net and serve his way out of trouble, but his best trait by a longshot is his head. His problem-solving has helped him pick up some massive wins during his first grass-court season, and he’s quickly learning to go to his slice more and more and run some plays on his serve to figure out the surface.
His mental fortitude will be put to the test against British No. 1 Dan Evans, a very experienced grass-courter who will have the fans on his side, but if there’s going to be one guy to block out the noise and just play some rock-solid points, it’s Korda. His form is arguably better at the moment, with some quality wins over big-time names like Roberto Bautista-Agut, Kei Nishikori and Alex De Minaur during the last couple weeks. This is his moment, and he is ready for it.
Pick: Korda -102 at FanDuel
Denis Shapovalov vs. Andy Murray
Dating back to his no-show in Miami against Roger Federer, who absolutely dismantled him in the 2019 semifinal, Shapovalov has never played well under pressure. Facing the biggest names in the game, he’s managed to put together some big moments to fill his highlight reel, like breaking Novak Djokovic as the Serb tried to serve out their match at the ATP Cup last year. With that said, those moments have never netted him actual big wins, because he’s had the tendency to double fault and crack when the moment gets big.
The moment will be monumental as he attempts to take out Andy Murray in front of a rabid, soccer-like crowd late at the All England Club. Murray has turned back the clock in two matches, serving exceptionally and pulling the rabbit out of the hat on numerous occasions. I will be the first to admit I thought Murray and his bionic hip had absolutely no chance at the championships, but he’s been fantastic. His form entering the tournament has had no impact on his play here, so there’s no reason for me to believe he won’t put the pressure on Shapovalov.
I think this match will be very tight, and from a matchup standpoint, both should be relying on their serve quite a bit on Friday, giving us an outside shot at cashing an over, even in a three-set match. I do think this goes four or five to get us across the finish line. I don’t trust Shapovalov to stay composed throughout, though he probably wins in the end.
Pick: Over 36.5 Games at DraftKings