The Minnesota Lynx (26-5) and New York Liberty (20-10) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 12:30 p.m. EDT at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Liberty are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 167.5 (-110o / -110u). The Liberty are a -175 favorite to win outright, while the Lynx are +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lynx vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks.
Lynx vs. Liberty Odds, Pick
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Lynx vs. Liberty Spread: Liberty -3.5 (-115), Lynx +3.5 (-105)
- Lynx vs. Liberty Over/Under: 167.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Lynx vs. Liberty Moneyline: Lynx +145, Liberty -175
- Lynx vs. Liberty Best Bet: Alanna Smith Under 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-105)
Lynx vs. Liberty Preview
Minnesota Lynx forward Alanna Smith comes into this matchup off her best shooting performance of the season. She went 10 of 15 from the field, which included draining four three-pointers on nine attempts. However, there is a massive difference defensively between the Washington Mystics and the team she'll be up against today, the New York Liberty.
The Liberty are the second-best defensive team in the association, behind the Lynx. They are excellent at contesting shots as they rank second in effective field goal percentage allowed, and they have been particularly great at defending the shots from beyond the arc, as over half of Smith's attempts come from on average. New York is tied for first in three-point percentage allowed.
In addition to a tough matchup, we should also see some volume regression from Smith. I mentioned that she attempted 15 shots in her most recent game. Well, her season average is eight per game with 4.7 of those coming from downtown.
Her volume may even be lower than usual if the Lynx can control the tempo. Minnesota and New York have contrasting styles as the Liberty are the fastest team in the league while the Lynx are the third slowest.
Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction
All signs point to fading Smith this afternoon: we can't let one clear outlier performance cloud our judgment.
She had gone under this matchup in all nine of her previous games prior, and has gone under this total 68% of the time.
Add in the tough defensive matchup, and you have yourself one of the strongest plays on the board.
Best Bet: Alanna Smith Under 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-105, BetMGM)
