The Phoenix Mercury (2-4) and Atlanta Dream (3-1) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on WANF.
The Dream are favored by -5.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 167.5 (-110o / -110u). The Dream are a -220 favorite to win outright, while the Dream are +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Dream predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Dream Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Mercury vs. Dream Spread: Mercury +5.5 (-115), Dream -5.5 (-105)
- Mercury vs. Dream Over/Under: 167.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Dream Moneyline: Mercury +180, Dream -220
- Mercury vs. Dream Best Bet: Over 167.5 (-110)
Mercury vs. Dream Preview
There's plenty of buzz surrounding this Atlanta Dream team that currently has the best record at 3-1. Their lone setback was a one-point loss (85-84) to the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces.
The addition of Angel Reese during the offseason helped solidify the team, particularly defensively, while also allowing them to better control games.
As a result, Atlanta has the best Defensive Rating (96.6) in the league, allowing almost four fewer points per 100 possessions than even the second-ranked Minnesota Lynx (100.4).
With the Dream's last three games all staying under the total, this might look like a spot where one might expect such a trend to continue.
However, they'll face a Phoenix Mercury team that has gone over the total in five straight games.
Therefore, one of these trends must prevail on Sunday, and we'll tell you which one deserves your utmost consideration.
Mercury vs. Dream Prediction
For a team that's as good defensively as the Dream, I would've assumed that they'd tend to play at a slower tempo.
However, Atlanta plays at the fourth-fastest pace, averaging 81.9 possessions per 40-minute game.
Thus, this is a team that doesn't mind pushing the ball up the court and exploiting quick transitions. Atlanta ranks seventh with 9.3 fastbreak points per game, but Phoenix has been even better, ranking second, averaging 12.0.
It's worth noting that the Mercury currently has the fifth-best offense with a 109.5. Phoenix fields a starting lineup of five players averaging in double figures.
While you could say the Dream has done well to slow down high-powered offenses like Dallas' and Las Vegas' in its last three games, those teams are fundamentally different from the type of challenge Phoenix could pose.
For example, the Wings (18.7) and Aces (19.3) have the second and third-fewest free throw attempts in the league.
In comparison, Phoenix leads the W with 27.5 free-throw attempts per game, while Atlanta ranks fifth (24.3) in the same category.
Hence, it's entirely possible that both teams could spend quite a bit of time at the free-throw line, with opportunities to add to their point totals while the game clock is turned off.
Another observation is that bookmakers may still be in the price-discovery stage for Atlanta.
Their first total was at 160.5 before jumping to 180.5 for Game 2. After back-to-back unders with totals in the low 170s, we've now seen the total drop to 167.5.
That adjustment feels too steep given the opponent, as this is a sneaky spot where the over feels undervalued.
Best Bet: Over 167.5 Points (-110, BetMGM)
