The Connecticut Sun (2-12) and Las Vegas Aces (6-7) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Aces are favored by -19.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 160.5 (-113o / -110u). The Aces are a -3000 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +1200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sun vs. Aces prediction and WNBA picks.
Sun vs. Aces Odds, Pick
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 160.5 -113o / -110u | +1200 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 160.5 -113o / -110u | -3000 |
- Sun vs. Aces Spread: Aces -19.5 (-110 ), Sun +19.5 (-110)
- Sun vs. Aces Over/Under: 160.5 (-113o / -110u)
- Sun vs. Aces Moneyline: Sun +1200, Aces -3000
- Sun vs. Aces Best Bet: Sun +19.5
Sun vs. Aces Preview
Simply put, this is a mismatch.
The Sun have lost six straight, four of which by double digits. Meanwhile, the Aces snapped their three-game skid with a win over the Fever and already beat the Sun by 25 earlier this season.
Las Vegas has underperformed this season, but is still the much better team in this matchup. However, winning the game and covering the spread are two different things. The Aces are just 4-9 against the spread this season and this is a big number to cover.
So, I'm going to have some faith in the underdog. There's also a Bet Labs' system — one that has been hot this season — that backs up that thought.
Sun vs. Aces Prediction
This system focuses on struggling teams coming off a non-close loss — defined as a loss by seven or more points. These situations heighten market negativity and inflate the next spread.
However, this system suggests that WNBA teams — even those with poor records — can respond competitively, especially when lines cross a key value threshold like 11.5 or more. We're capturing max line inflation, which has been driven by poor optics, not predictive fundamentals.
Backing bad teams as big 'dogs can be scary — after all, there's a reason why these teams are such big 'dogs — but this system has hit 67% of its picks this season (8-4) and has generated a 27% ROI. If you're looking for a more substantial sample size, this system is 145-90-4 (62%) lifetime and has produced a 19% ROI.
Best Bet: Sun +19.5
