The WNBA All-Star weekend turning into one huge party has become an annual tradition, and the StudBudz (Courtney Williams & Natisha Hiedeman) live-streamed basically the entire night on Twitch.
I caught a good chunk of it and it was absolute chaos. Wild, entertaining, and honestly one of the coolest pieces of WNBA content we've gotten. It also got me thinking about the 3-Point Contest.
For novelty events like this, I think it's important to think outside the box. Step 1 is figuring out who might not be operating at 100% after last night. Step 2 is the actual analytics.
I put together a table looking at average 3-point distance, corner vs. above-the-break shot frequency, and shooting percentage from each area. I think having a balanced shot profile, rather than relying heavily on one spot on the floor, is a sneaky edge in this format.
Let's get into my WNBA 3-Point Contest predictions and picks for Friday, July 24.
WNBA 3-Point Contest Predictions, Picks
Natisha Hiedeman
I estimated she had 10+ drinks last night. She looked to be in rough shape this morning before getting hooked up to an IV, so maybe she'll feel much better by tonight, but I'd still be surprised if she's operating at 100%.
She was already the longshot in this field and the numbers don't help. She takes over 90% of her 3s above the break but shoots just 34% on them. Nothing but red flags here.
Bridget Carleton
Sneaky fit for this format, but she was out until around 3 a.m. with the rest of the crew. She was drinking straight from a wine bottle during the hotel room pregame, which will provide the worst form of hangover headache.
Her profile is extremely corner-heavy, where she's one of the best shooters in the field (43.6%), but she's noticeably weaker above the break.
Marina Mabrey
She wasn't on stream nearly as much, but I counted at least a few tequila shots and she was making it rain late into the night. Safe to assume she won't be feeling 100% either.
If everyone were fresh, she'd probably be my favorite. She has arguably the best overall shot profile in the field and is one of the few players who regularly takes logo 3s in games, which matters in this contest.
Azzi Fudd
Maybe the star of last night's stream. She was out with the StudBudz until around 3 a.m. She's fresh out of college, so maybe she's the best equipped to bounce back, but I'd recommend watching some of those clips before blindly betting her as the favorite.
Paige Bueckers has talked about how good she is in shooting contests for what it’s worth.
My concern is her shot profile. She owns the best above-the-break percentage in the field (39.5%), but she's the weakest corner shooter (34.8%), and that's enough to keep me from making her the clear favorite.
Rhyne Howard
I only saw her briefly on the Orange Carpet showing off the purple dress, then she basically disappeared. Maybe she was in bed by 10 p.m. getting ready for today for all I know.
She's more of a volume shooter than an elite percentage shooter, but she has the highest corner 3-point percentage in the field (47.1%), albeit in a much smaller sample than everyone else. She's one of my top two values entering tonight.
Janelle Salaün
I don't think she was out partying. I thought I saw her briefly, but the lighting was terrible and I'm honestly only about 5% confident it was even her. If it was, she wasn't holding a drink and just seemed to be saying hi to people.
More importantly, she might have the cleanest statistical profile in the field. She's the only contestant shooting around 40% from both the corners (41.2%) and above the break (39.0%), giving her the most balanced profile across every rack.
She also has one of the smoother, more repeatable releases in the field, which I think matters in this format once shooters settle into a rhythm.
Sean Koerner's WNBA 3-Point Contest Best Bet
- Janelle Salaün +550
That's why I'm rolling with Janelle Salaün at +550. I think she has one of the most well-rounded shot profiles in the field, and assuming she wasn't participating in the all-night festivities, she may also have a freshness edge over several of the favorites.
It should be a fun contest either way, and we'll find out soon enough if the StudBudz can rally for Round 2 tonight before the All-Star Game tomorrow.
