WNBA Player Props Today: Alyssa Thomas, Breanna Stewart Among Best Picks (October 1)
Via Brian Babineau/Getty Images. Pictured: Breanna Stewart #30 of the New York Liberty shoots a free throw during game three of the 2023 WNBA Playoffs semifinals against the Connecticut Sun on September 29, 2023 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.
We went 2-0 on Friday, thanks to yet another Betnijah Laney over and a second Arike Ogunbowale under in these playoffs.
Your record update is as follows:
- WNBA season: 44-29
- WNBA since August 8: 30-12
- WNBA playoffs: 12-6
We're also 4-1 this week.
We kick off October with Game 4 of the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun today and no other games.
The Las Vegas Aces are waiting in the wings, no pun intended, after sweeping their way to the WNBA Finals, and the Sun have a shot at playing spoiler at least one more game by prolonging the Eastern Conference Finals.
I have two player prop picks for Liberty vs. Sun Game 4, and I'm going to test the hell out of this hot streak today.
WNBA Player Props Today
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -104 | 160.5. -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -118 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +176 |
Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (-102)
It's hard not to go with Alyssa Thomas over her point total in a do-or-die, back-against-the-wall, win-or-stay-home game.
The Connecticut Sun are down 2-1 and playing for their season on their home floor, and Thomas is fresh off a series-best 23 points on 11-of-17 shooting. Thomas has played 40 minutes in all but two playoff games — just over 37 last time out — so expect her to remain out there for all 40 barring injury or foul trouble.
Lately, her scoring has been up and down — she's scored over 16.5 points in three of her last five outings but only four of her last nine games overall — and against the Liberty, she's only done it twice.
But Thomas just dropped 28 points in an elimination game against the Minnesota Lynx last series, and given the volume, she'll need a similar performance for the Sun to extend the series. Consequently, we're taking a chance on this over here, even if it comes inefficiently.
Playoff basketball isn't supposed to be pretty, and while I think the Liberty close this series out, the Sun will fight like hell, and Thomas has 40 minutes to get 17 points.
Breanna Stewart Over 1.5 Made 3s (+140)
Yeah, we're taking chances today.
Breanna Stewart had been shooting poorly for five consecutive games before finally breaking her scoring slump when she scored 25 points on a healthy 11-for-19 shooting display in Game 3 of this series, but she only shot 1-for-3 from deep.
The Liberty mounted an early lead and were far too easily able to get downhill against the Sun's defense, and as a result, Stewart found everything she needed inside the 3-point line. Her trio of attempts from deep were the fewest she's had in a game since July 23rd, and this was only the second time she's been under five attempts since September 1st.
So while Stewart was finally efficient from the field, she still hasn't completely found it from deep, where she's 3-for-24 in the playoffs, and three for her last 30 if you include an 0-for-6 display in the final game of the season.
So why am I betting over 1.5 3-point makes? This trend has to end, and where better than a road closeout game against the Sun, who'll likely tighten up their perimeter defense and force the Liberty to jack more than 26 3s.
The bet is for Stewie to now shake the 3-point slump, and I think she'll beat the outlier trend to finally do it.
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