The 2026 NCAA tournament is here, and the story of March Madness is always Cinderellas, underdogs and upsets.
But the truth of the matter is that the best way to win your bracket is to identify the correct champion.
And sometimes the best way to do that is to rule out as many other non-champs as possible from the top seeds.
No trend is perfect or unbeatable, but a number of trends can point us in the right direction. Let's take a look at nine of them to see which teams might be more of a contender than it seems and which presumed contenders are less likely to win it all.
Let's start with some popular trends from KenPom and Haslemetrics.
Nine Key Trends to Find Your True Championship Contenders
1. Since KenPom started tracking things in 2002, 22-of-23 eventual champs started the tournament top-21 in Adjusted Offense (all but 2014 UConn) and 22-of-23 champs started top-37 in Adjusted Defense (all but 2021 Baylor).
- Teams that clear the bar: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Illinois, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Louisville and Texas Tech
- Close enough to fudge the numbers: Michigan State (O24), Gonzaga (O30), Virginia (O27), Iowa (O31)
- Red flag teams that fall 10+ spots short: Nebraska (O55), Arkansas (D48), Tennessee (O37), St. John's (o44), Alabama (D67), Kansas (O57), Wisconsin (D51)
2. Only two champions since 2004 started the tournament outside KenPom's top six (exceptions: 2011 UConn #15, 2014 UConn #25).
- Current top six: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State
- Just missed: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan St., Gonzaga, UConn
3. Every champion the last 11 seasons had a top-10 offense and top-35 defense at Haslemetrics.
- Teams that qualify: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt
- Close but miss the cut: Florida (O11), Arkansas (D37), Alabama (D38), Ohio State (D40), Texas Tech (O14)
So, what have we learned so far?
Duke, Michigan and Arizona are the only three teams marked safe in all three metrics so far. Florida is awfully close, just one spot away in one metric, and ditto for Illinois.
Houston and Iowa State fit the KenPom criteria, but they aren't even close at Haslemetrics. Purdue is mostly out of the picture. UConn and Michigan State are out completely. And Vanderbilt checks in as a surprise potential contender, hitting two of the three marks.
Then there's the famous AP Poll trend.
4. Every single champion since 2004 ranked top 12 in the Week 6 AP Poll — 22 straight champs.
- This year's qualifiers: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue, Houston, Gonzaga, Michigan St., BYU, Louisville, Alabama
- Not quite: Illinois (13), Vanderbilt (15), Texas Tech (16), Florida (18), Nebraska (23), Virginia (24)
Illinois again just barely misses the cut here, by little enough that it can probably be waved away. (It's easy enough to just expand these trends to "top 13" in future years, right?) Vanderbilt misses, but stays intriguingly in the mix. Teams like Virginia and Nebraska are way out.
But the big story here is the No. 18 team back in Week 6, the Florida Gators. That's a serious red flag for our fourth one-seed and would make the defending champs a major outlier.
And actually, all but three of these last 22 champs were top-seven in that Week 6 poll.
Look at the qualifiers list again. That's in order. That would mean Arizona, Michigan, or Duke — duh — or possibly Iowa State, UConn, Purdue or Houston. That's it. And that's another strike against Michigan State.
But we're not done yet.
5. No team has ever won the National Championship after losing its first game in a conference tournament.
- Presumed contenders on the list: Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, Alabama, Texas Tech
It's yet another mark against Michigan State, which should be well off your list by now, and those final three names probably aren't too surprising.
It's unfortunately another ding on Illinois, which keeps just missing on some of these metrics and probably should be off the list too.
Ready for a more niche trend?
6. In the modern 64-team tournament since 1985, no 1- or 2-seed that lost more than three games in February and March went on to win it all.
- Top seeds on the hit list: UConn, Houston, Purdue, Iowa State
Oh my! All four two-seeds take a hit here.
UConn, Houston and Purdue all lost four games in that stretch, just over the limit, but both Purdue and Houston have lost four since just the middle of February, meaning just the last month alone.
That's not a great sign for momentum or positive play lately, and even worse for Iowa State, which had five losses in that stretch.
There's another bad trend for Purdue, though:
7. The last preseason No.1 team to win the title that season was North Carolina in 2009, and the last four such teams won just four tourney games combined.
Last year's No. 1 was Kansas, which went out in the first round. It was Kansas the previous season too, and that year's team was upset in the second round. The previous year saw preseason No. 1 North Carolina miss the tournament altogether, and 2022 saw Gonzaga go out in the Sweet 16.
Do you remember which team was this season's preseason No. 1?
It was Purdue. The Boilermakers slogged through much of the regular season, especially struggling at home, before rebounding to win the Big Ten Tournament. But history says the preseason expectations may be a little too much, and that's a few too many strikes against Purdue now.
A few more potential single-team eliminators …
8. We still haven't had a national champion from a non-power conference since UNLV in 1990.
You can make a case for 2014 UConn falling in that group, or maybe 1986 Louisville, but if we're being fair, this is a pretty big mark against Gonzaga. And the Zags have gotten pretty close, but close isn't quite enough.
9. Only one defending national champion has repeated as champs the following season since 2007.
This isn't as shocking as it might be in professional sports because of the roster turnover, but this year it does happen to be a pretty big mark against one-seed Florida.
In fact, only one defending champ since 2007 has even gotten past the Sweet 16. That was UConn in 2023 and 2024, which went on to win it all twice in a row.
Though it's worth noting that the 2007 cutoff here does conveniently cut right after another team went back-to-back…
Florida.
This one alone may not knock the Gators out of consideration, but don't forget they've already missed several other marks.
So, Who Are Those Contenders?
Apply all the criteria and three teams continue to rise above the fray as likely potential champions: Duke, Arizona, and Michigan.
Those three teams continue to check every box.
… Or do they?
We haven't seen any national champion west of Texas since 1997, with West Coast teams 0-4 in national title games in that stretch. Danger for Arizona.
We also haven't seen a single Big Ten national champion in the last 25 years, all the way back to 2000 Michigan State. Danger for Michigan.
As for Duke, since the committee started naming No. 1 overall seeds in 2004, only 4-of-20 won the title, just 20%. In fact, eight of the last 11 didn't even make the Final Four. And only one No. 1 overall seed has won the title since 2012. So Duke could be in trouble, too.
In fact, five of six KenPom teams with a +36.5 rating or better didn't actually win the title that season.
Guess which three teams are sitting at +36.5 or better right now?
Duke. Arizona. Michigan.
You know what?
Only two champs the last two decades didn't wear blue on their jerseys.
Duke, Arizona and Michigan all wear blue.
Just go one with one of those guys, and let the Madness begin!
