Sean Koerner

I was a bit surprised to see his prop this high here, as this is a number he’s only cleared in 4 of 16 games this season. Obviously, being in the playoffs changes the dynamic for a lot of prop markets, but when it comes to Allen, he’s probably going to be more willing to scramble and put his body on the line now that we’re in the playoffs, which would only limit his ceiling in this market. Plus, while we would normally expect a more likely trailing, pass-heavy game script in the playoffs, this game is basically a pick’em. The Bills are projected to play with the lead around 43% of the game (that’s the typical rate for a pick’em, not that I’m saying they’ll lead for exactly 43%). That’s also basically the exact rate they’ve led this season, so I’m not expecting their dropback rate to change much here. This sets up as a pretty typical game script for them. They’ve also dominated time of possession this season, ranking 1st at just over 33 minutes per game, but the Jaguars rank 5th in TOP themselves, so they could cut into the Bills’ overall play volume by keeping them on the sideline a bit more than usual. The Jaguars have used Cover 6 at a league-high rate this year and 23% of the time over the last 6 weeks. Allen has scrambled on 18% of his dropbacks against Cover 6 compared to just 8.1% against all other coverages. Anytime he scrambles, that takes away a potential pass att. Plus, this game is expected to have perfect weather, especially compared to most of the other games this weekend. We actually want Allen completing most of his passes here. Incomplete passes are brutal for this market and usually lead to a higher % chance they throw again on the next play or push the game into a more pass-heavy script. So Allen having great weather to complete passes, be efficient, and potentially throw downfield can actually help this stay under. I’m projecting him closer to 31.5 pass att with around a 61% chance to stay under 33.5.

Realize these props are tougher to grab because they move FAST after I post and bet them. They’re still one of my favorite markets to dive into (helps me with offensive player props too) and are super fun to sweat. I would imagine they grow in popularity over the next few seasons. Tackling is so essential to the game we love and prop bettors still haven’t scratched the surface of actually betting on them yet. Once that starts to happen, this market will sharpen up and it’ll be easier to get more down without lines moving as fast. On that note, I’ll continue to post my favorite offensive player prop and favorite tackle prop for each game. Be sure to check out our Prop tool, which shows the biggest prop edges based on my projections, if you’d like to target even more props from each game. Thompson is expected to play through a neck injury, while Terrel Bernard has already been ruled out with a calf injury. In Weeks 13–15 when Bernard was out, Shaq filled in as an every-down linebacker and played 95% of the snaps. During that 3-game stretch, his tackle rate on run plays went up from 15.8% to 20.6%, and his tackle rate on completed passes went up from 12.4% to 14.6%. If you apply his season rates to the matchup against the Jaguars, I have him projected for 6.5 tackles. If you apply his 3-game sample in place of Bernard, I have him closer to 8.1. Needless to say, I’m showing value on him either way, but he carries a ton of upside in this full-time role without Bernard. Plus, the Bills scorekeeper has been by far the stingiest when it comes to dishing out assists so anytime he plays on the road it increases his chances of picking up assists. Also, as I mentioned in my Allen under 33.5 pass att prop, the Bills have dominated TOP this season and, as a result, their defense has faced the fewest plays per game. Facing the Jaguars here, who are 4th in TOP and 4th in plays per game, we could see the defense on the field for more plays, which raises Shaq’s upside. I’m projecting him closer to 6.8 tackles (but obviously could be even higher given the 3-game split I highlighted without Bernard) with around a 67% chance to clear 5.5. I’m also going to add some more at 7+ +135 (projected closer to -108) and 10+ +820 (projected closer to +575).

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Hurts hasn’t been using his legs as much this season and, while that could obviously change now that we’re in the playoffs, I still think there’s decent value on his under here. He’s only cleared this once since Week 5, and part of that is because he’s averaging a career-low 1.7 designed rush attempts per game this season. The league has started to make it tougher to run the infamous tush push by calling false starts on it at a higher rate, and the play itself hasn’t been as efficient this year. We’ve also seen them experiment with variations, like pitching it to Barkley instead, which led to a long TD run against the Chargers. As a result, we haven’t seen Hurts rack up as many cheap rush attempts. He’s also facing a 49ers defense that’s struggled to generate pressure ever since Nick Bosa went down in Week 3, as they’ve generated the 2nd lowest pressure rate since then. Lane Johnson is tentatively expected to return as well, so Hurts could operate from one of the cleanest pockets he’s seen all season, which would lower his expected scramble rate. His rush att prop has crept up with the Eagles now favored by 6 points over the 49ers (it was -3.5 earlier in the week), which makes sense because his chances of kneel-downs from a victory formation increase, which is always key to this market. But a leading game script would also lower his dropback volume and potential scrambles, which caps his ceiling here. I’m projecting him closer to 6.7 rush attempts, and having access to a win if he lands on 7 exactly (which I have happening around 15% of the time) is massive here. That’s why I’m projecting around a 63% chance he stays under 7.5.

When it comes to the Packers, you have to throw out their Week 18 game with them resting key players and starting Clayton Tune. But in Week 17, it was the first game we’ve seen with Josh Whyle since leaving Week 15 early due to injury. In that game, Whyle was the Packers’ TE on 71% of their 3WR sets, so Musgrave only saw 29% of those snaps, which are the more pass-heavy formations, while playing most of the 2TE sets, which are typically more run heavy. As a result, Musgrave only had a 41% routes run rate, which has been right around where he’s been since Tucker Kraft’s season-ending injury and when Whyle has been healthy and able to play a full game. So his playing time has been limited, and this is also a game where the Packers could try to lean on the run game a bit more with Josh Jacobs closer to 100%. There’s also enough snow and wind in the forecast that it could impact the passing game. Musgrave was a solid prospect and was actually taken a round ahead of Kraft in the same class, but he’s a different type of pass catcher and more of a downfield threat, and not very good after the catch, whereas Kraft is elite there. So either he’s going to see fewer downfield targets given the potential conditions, or if they end up scheming him more shorter throws and this things toast, but that’s not really his skill set. The Bears have also been pretty solid against TEs, ranking 10th in DVOA against the position, and that was without their best coverage LB T.J. Edwards, who missed a handful of games in the middle of the season. Musgrave clearly has the talent and role to clear this with 1–2 catches, so I’m going to shy away from his rec yds prop (showing value on the under 23.5, but some books are already down to 20.5) and since the main downside with him is playing time (on passing downs) I think this is the market to fade him. Projecting him closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 61% chance to stay under 2.5

Enagbare has seen his playing time trend up at times this season. He was just a 20–30% snap player for the first 6 weeks of the season, then Lukas Van Ness went down and he jumped into the 45–55% range. Since that point, he’s cleared this number 64% of the time. However, he reached a new level following Micah Parsons’ injury and has averaged a 73% snap rate in those two games. He has massive upside with that sort of playing time because he mixes in on 15% of run plays when he’s on the field, and this is a great matchup against the Bears, who have provided DEs with the 3rd most tackle opps. Part of that is due to D’Andre Swift bouncing his runs outside at a high rate. It’s also a game where the weather could force teams to run the ball more and take fewer downfield shots. I’m projecting Enagbare to mix in on ~3 run plays, plus roughly a 50/50 chance to mix in on a pass play. He tackled Zay Flowers on a 1-yard screen pass in his last game in Week 17 and tends to mix in on those at a higher rate than most DEs. He’s also a positive regression candidate according to my Sack Lunch model. He has just 2 sacks on the season, but I have him closer to 3.4 expected sacks. So he has a ton of upside here, and I don’t think the market is fully factoring in the uptick in playing time he’s seeing since Parsons went down. I’m projecting him a full tackle higher with around a 70% chance to clear 2.5. I’m also taking his 4+ tackles at +201 (I have that closer to ~50%) and 5+ tackles at +467 (I have that closer to +222).

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