David Benavidez vs. Demetrius Andrade Odds, Preview & Prediction: The Plus-Money Angle for Showtime Pay-Per-View (Saturday, November 25)
Kelsey Grant/Getty Images. Pictured: Boxer David Benavidez
David Benavidez vs. Demetrius Andrade Odds
David Benavidez vs. Demetrius Andrade.
God, what a fight this is going to be on Saturday night on Showtime pay-per-view.
Generally, I go into these boxing previews already knowing my pick – duh – but in this instance, I'm beginning the breakdown without a definitive side, intending to write through it and decide by the end of this Benavidez vs. Andrade preview.
WBC interim super middleweight champion Benavidez (27-0, 23 KOs) meets "Boo Boo" Andrade (32-0, 19 KOs) in one of the more exciting bouts of the year because all roads in this weight class run through undisputed king Canelo Alvarez.
The winner will become the mandatory No. 1 contender to Alvarez, per the WBC, in a bout that would likely take place next year, possibly in May.
Let's check out the odds for Benavidez vs. Andrade and my prediction, pick and betting angles.
Benavidez vs. Andrade Fight Analysis
Few things are more exciting in sports than when an athlete, who seemingly has all the tools, is finally putting it together – especially after some early tribulations.
Benavidez is one of boxing's rising stars, and he main evented his first pay-per-view in March – a statement unanimous decision win over Caleb Plant – setting up a significant fight later in the year, which he earned with Andrade this weekend.
Benavidez, who turns 27 next month, is in his second reign as interim champion. The first was ended when he was on that white, but we discussed that months ago.
Now Benavidez is realizing his potential – at last – as a pressure-fighting, combination-throwing, strong, fast and physical Mexican-American warrior who poses the biggest threat to Canelo at 168 pounds.
Two tough competitors. One highly-anticipated fight. 👏
Don't miss #BenavidezAndrade tomorrow at 8PM ET/5PM PT on Showtime PPV.
— SHOWTIME Boxing (@ShowtimeBoxing) November 24, 2023
It's what makes him the favorite over Andrade, as the much younger champion typically would, except Benavidez's opponent isn't your typical challenger on Saturday night.
Andrade is a supremely skilled southpaw who has been a world champion at super welterweight and middleweight. But at 35 years old, he's never had an opportunity this grand and is finally getting a big-name fight in his much-maligned career.
Benavidez's win over Plant is the most credible between the two. Across both Andrade's title runs at 154 and 160 pounds, his most significant victory – in terms of competition level – comes against Jack Culcay, Vanes Martirosyan or Maciej Sulecki. Take your pick.
Honestly, for a dude who is 35, undefeated, won three world titles in two weight classes, and who is on the verge of fighting for his fourth in a third, it's not an impressive resume.
It's especially the case when you pierce through the history of what could have been regarding big fights, but we don't have time for that today.
The orthodox Benavidez stands at 6-foot-2 with a 74.5-inch reach while the southpaw Andrade is a 6-foot southpaw with a 73.5-inch reach.
Benavidez is a bully with quickness who is astute at cutting off the ring from counter-punching-minded foes who wish to try to outbox the bruiser using defense and speed.
However, Benavidez last fought a southpaw in his win over Denis Douglin in August 2016, a 10th-round TKO victory – and that was 12 fights ago.
By nature of this being a mostly right-handed world, Andrade has seen far more orthodox fighters, including each of his last five opponents.
Benavidez vs. Andrade Pick
OK, I've rewatched fights, consumed press conference sound, and even watched some of Showtime's All-Access series.
I have to say, I had an initial lean that might prove to be right – my first instinct is more often than not, whether or not I decide to follow it – but I've gone the other way, and back and forth … and back and forth.
It's extremely difficult to bet this fight. Andrade's film is all against fighters who are clearly overmatched, but at the same time, Benavidez has never fought anyone who fights anything close to Boo Boo's style.
And either way I pick, I'm going to fly in the face of a belief.
Usually, in what is expected to be a close fight, you pick the significantly younger fighter to topple the older one, especially if said older fighter is two weight classes heavier than where he started. But also, this is boxer vs. puncher, and I generally lean boxer if I think the fight is close to 50-50, so I'm breaking a rule either way.
I'm going with, after much deliberation, Benavidez to win by decision at +144 at FanDuel.
I worry about Andrade's tendency to leave himself wide open when reaching for body shots, and Benavidez could check left hook him to the canvas. But I think this can go all 12 rounds because both guys are immensely tough, and I expected Plant to get stopped in March – he didn't.
Listen, though: Andrade can absolutely win this fight, and if you think he does, bet him +500 by decision. I'm confident in, if anyone's getting a knockout, it's Benavidez.
This card is stacked – so here are so other leans I have for Saturday's card (lines via FanDuel):
- Jermall Charlo over Jose Benavidez Jr. by decision (-120)*
- Subriel Matias over Shohjahon Ergashev by KO/TKO (-188)
- Hector Garcia over Lamont Roach by decision (-108)
* – On Friday Charlo missed weight by more than three rounds, so I now suggest to tread lightly with this lean.
Good luck and don't go broke!
The Pick: David Benavidez by Decision (+144 at FanDuel)