Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia Odds, Preview: One of the Boxing’s Best Is a 3-1 Underdog

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia Odds, Preview: One of the Boxing’s Best Is a 3-1 Underdog article feature image

AT&T Stadium. Pictured: Errol Spence Jr., Jerry Jones and Mikey Garcia

Betting odds: Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia

  • Errol Spence Jr. odds: -400
  • Mikey Garcia odds: +300
  • Over/Under: 9.5 Rounds (-185/160)
  • Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Tx.
  • Channel: FOX Pay-Per-View
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET

Two undefeated boxers in their prime will do battle on Saturday night when Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs) takes on Errol Spence Jr. (24-0, 21 KOs) at Cowboy Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

Even though Garcia and Spence aren’t necessarily household names outside of the boxing world, this is one of the best fights that can be made in boxing today, featuring two pound-for-pound greats in their prime.

The one thing to note is that Garcia is a natural lightweight (135 lbs) and Spence is one of the best welterweights (147 lbs) on the planet.  So not only is “El Mikey” moving up in size, he’s taking on one of the best fighters in the world in the process.

That being said, both Spence and Garcia are extremely gifted technically and have power to back up their skill. Neither boxer is really lacking in terms of tools, IQ or athleticism. Fireworks, here they come.

Betting Market

Spence has always been a decent favorite in this fight, opening at -345 and then bouncing between there and -400 for the past week. Garcia hit the market at +250 and has drifted to +300.

It may be jarring to see Garcia, who is considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters on earth, as a 3-1 underdog but he is moving up in class to take this fight. Garcia is a natural lightweight, so a jump to welterweight to take on one of the world’s best 147-pounders will certainly skew the odds.

It is also necessary to point out that these odds aren’t that wide in boxing. This is a sport that regularly has -2000 favorites and +1000 underdogs, so a -400/+300 split isn’t anything crazy, even though the prices imply that Spence has a 76.2% chance to win.

How Errol Spence Jr. Can Win

By: Michael Leboff

The narrative for this fight has been hammered, Errol Spence Jr. is a naturally powerful 147-pounder while Mikey Garcia is an elite fighter, but is a natural lightweight and is moving up two weight-classes for this fight.

In terms of skill and technical ability, Garcia has the edge, but don’t sleep on Spence. This is a former Olympian we’re talking about, after all.

Spence’s path to success is much simpler than Garcia’s: He needs to fight on his terms. That means Spence needs to control the distance, keeping Garcia in the pocket so he can manhandle him. Errol needs this fight to devolve into a slugfest. Sure, Spence can box and may be able to win on the cards, but that’s playing with fire. Mikey Garcia has impeccable timing and is one of the most intelligent a boxers alive.

The way Garcia nullified the power of Robert Easter Jr., who was also the bigger fighter in the square circle, was by using slick, subtle lateral movement. That thew Easter off and allowed Mikey to take away his opponent’s best weapon.

Spence is a relentless pressure-fighter already, so if he sticks to that plan he should have success and land with enough power to keep Garcia from doing what he does best.

How Mikey Garcia Can Win

By: Malik Smith

Garcia’s accomplishments and reputation in the boxing world makes this fight compelling. As noted above, Garcia is truly a 135-pound fighter, although he won a belt fighting at 140 pounds. For him to make a jump to 147 seems bold, if not foolish, on his part given the risk, but this is a guy who has won belts in four divisions.

But Garcia seems to be chasing the greats who have gone up multiple weight classes like Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De la Hoya. With a win he would join those fighters on a list of five-division title holders.

So how does he do it?

Garcia’s last fight against former lightweight champ Robert Easter Jr. should help him prepare. The 5-foot-6 champion was at a significant height (5 inches) and reach (8 inches) disadvantage against Easter and will have a similar issue against the Spence — 5-foot-9 with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Garcia was smart enough to use his jab to get inside and follow up with quick combinations to throw Easter off his game. While he hasn’t scored a stoppage win since 2017, Garcia has knockdowns in his past two fights including against Easter last July.

via Gfycat

With 30 KOs in his 39 career fights (77% KO rate) his power is no fluke. We’ll just have to see if he can carry it up to 147. Regardless, his best shot at winning is pressuring Spence

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Mikey Garcia Best Bets

This is a fascinating fight. Mikey Garcia could actually be the most-skilled boxer alive and he’s a 3-1 underdog. The reasoning is sound, Garcia is not only moving up in weight, but he’s taking on the “Boogeyman” of the welterweight division.

Spence should win this fight. The odds are already telling you that, but the circumstances of the bout are swayed towards the Long-Island-born-Texas-raised southpaw. Yet, it’s hard to discount Garcia, he’s just so god damn good at everything.

At +300, you need Mikey to win this fight ~25% of the time to have any real value.  I think he ticks that box.

He’s already defeated bigger fighters, so I’m not about to put off by the idea of backing him against a natural welterweight. Garcia is quick — and more importantly intelligent — enough to keep Spence off balance. And he’s one of the best in-fight adjusters in the sport.

Give me 3-1 on, perhaps, the best fighter on the planet. — Leboff

I’m expecting this fight to be competitive throughout because both fighters are champions. I’m expecting each fighter to have a huge moment at one point in the bout that could sway the crowd and the judges. I am also expecting the word upset to be tossed around post-fight … just not in the way some would think.

There have been so many fights of this caliber in the past two years where the fighters look even and the judges score it that way, which compels me to bet the draw at +2000. It seems lame, but don’t be surprised if this fight is inconclusive. — Smith

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