Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions | Crystal Palace vs Everton Preview

Crystal Palace in Midst of Resurgence

The Roy Hodgson revolution has taken Selhurst Park by storm, as the Eagles have scored nine goals and won all three matches with the 75-year old in the dugout. These high-event style matches are somewhat new to a Hodgson-coached team. However, last season when he was in Watford's dugout and they were in the relegation zone he had to play more aggressive, which led to more chaotic matches averaging 2.68 xG per 90 minutes.

When he was the manager of Crystal Palace from 2017-2021, Crystal Palace would typically play out of a 4-4-2 and over-performed their xG drastically. Patrick Vieira's 4-2-3-1 pressing tactics were getting stale and Palace weren't able to find the amount of space in transition that Hodgson's 4-3-3 has now afforded them. Crystal Palace may be over-performing, but 6.6 xG in three matches is no joke.

Although the defensive performances have improved under Hodgson, Crystal Palace have been average on the season, allowing 1.28 npxG per 90 minutes. Crystal Palace have also been one of the worst teams at defending set pieces going on two years now, which is a terrible matchup against a Sean Dyche-coached team that thrives on set pieces.

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Everton Looking to Replicate Opponent's Performance

The big news this week for Everton is Dominic Calvert-Lewin is finally healthy enough to play after being out months on end. His return is massive for Everton because not only has he been around a 0.50 xG per 90 minute striker over his career at Everton, but he's also something that Everton didn't have in his absence: an aerial threat at striker.

Sean Dyche's system is not build out from the back. Rather, it's about throwing long balls up to big strikers to win 50/50 balls and eventually create transitional opportunities. Without him, Everton have been fine offensively, but adding a striker of Dominic Calvert-Lewin's ability and aerial presence is only going to make them that much better.

Everton have also had a much higher event style under Sean Dyche and a lot of that has to do with the fact that Everton are not just sitting back in the typical 4-4-2 we typically see under Dyche. They're trying to press higher up the pitch to disrupt build-up play. Under Frank Lampard, Everton had a PPDA of 15.3 and were one of the most passive teams in the Premier League. Under Dyche, they have a PPDA 12.2 and have a much higher average defensive line. That has caused Everton matches to average 3.38 xG per 90 minutes.

Crystal Palace vs Everton Pick

On paper, a Sean Dyche versus Roy Hodgson match would typically set to play as an extremely defensive encounter. In fact, only two of their eight encounters against each other in the Premier League have gone over 2.5 goals.

However, these two managers have seemed to reinvent themselves and it's also a match that sets up to be played primarily in transition, which is where both teams thrive offensive and struggle defensively.

I think the total is far too low here given the way both of these clubs have been playing recently and as soon as the first goal goes in, this will become a very end-to-end style match.

Pick: Over 2 (-129)