Southampton vs Liverpool Preview | Premier League Odds, Picks
Catherine Ivill/Getty. Pictured: Trent Alexander-Arnold.
Southampton vs Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-275 / +220)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-188 / +137)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here|
On the final day of the Premier League season, Liverpool look to close out the campaign with a win at Southampton on Sunday.
The Reds have finished the campaign on a 10-game unbeaten run, but it was not enough to secure a place in the Champions League next year.
Meanwhile, the Saints are headed down to the Championship for the first time since 2012 after finishing bottom of the EPL.
With this being a meaningless game for both squads, this is a tough one to call at St. Mary’s Park. However, I do see betting value in the props market that is worth attacking.
Southampton Capping Off Solid PL Era
It has been a great run for Southampton in the English top flight, as they've spent the last 10 seasons in the Premier League.
The club has qualified for the Europa League twice during this stretch and played in the Carabao Cup Final in 2017.
There have been top managers leading the team, like Mauricio Pochettino and Ronald Koeman, and stars have moved on to become household names, including Sadio Mané, Dušan Tadić and Virgil van Dijk.
This is a club with a young roster that could use a season in the Championship, and if veterans like James Ward-Prowse decide to stay, the Saints could come marching back to the top tier in England very soon.
Liverpool Hopeful Season-Ending Form Carries Over
Outside of Manchester City, no other team has been on better form over the last couple of months than Liverpool. Manager Jürgen Klopp’s side has racked up seven wins over the last 10 games to go along with three draws.
Over this impressive run, the Reds have posted a +9.2 xGDiff and averaged 2.07 xG, according to fbref.com. They have also registered 3.5 big chances per 90 minutes.
One big change Klopp made was making Trent Alexander-Arnold more of an inverted fullback who spends most of his time in the center of the park.
You have to imagine that we see more of that next season, and Liverpool will be looking to carry this momentum into a better campaign.
Southampton vs Liverpool Pick
If you told me to pick my favorite match for a bet in the EPL this weekend, I don’t believe this game would be high on my list because of the lack of motivation and possible squad rotations. However, I do see a bet that I like.
My best bet is for the total corners in the match to fall under 9.5 at -120 odds.
Neither of these teams typically has a lot of corners in their league fixtures. For Southampton, only seven of 18 (39%) home matches in the EPL have finished with 10 or more corners.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s road games have an even lower percentage, with only 33 percent flying over this same number. This has also been a winning bet in six of nine fixtures on the road at the bottom 10 sides.
If you think of how this game plays out, it likely will be very similar to a preseason friendly, which means we shouldn’t have either team pushing for goals that lead to corners.
For this same reason, I also like a look at the total cards to fall under 2.5 or 3.5 if your sportsbook offers this play. I can’t see either side flying into tackles in the last game of the campaign.