Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 10: Expert Advice on Odell Beckham Jr., Terrace Marshall Jr., More
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr.
No matter how deep your league is, Week 9 offered plenty of injuries and potential breakout performances to make sure your waiver wire has intriguing names on it — not to mention a hectic NFL Trade Deadline impacted a number of clubs.
Our fantasy football analysts break down key names you'll be either bidding on or considering with your top waiver claim.
WR Terrace Marshall, Panthers
Sean Koerner: Marshall was drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft for a reason. He was commanding targets at LSU despite playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. We have to forgive him for having a slow start to his career considering he’s had Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield as his quarterbacks.
In Week 9, Marshall posted another solid receiving line (3/53/1) and ran a route on 97% of dropbacks. Although it mostly came in garbage time, it was nice to see Marshall gain some chemistry with Mayfield given we could see a carousel of QBs under center in Carolina for the remainder of the season.
Either way, the Panthers are giving Marshall every opportunity to shine. He’s a solid WR4 option in deeper leagues, but I’m afraid he’s already producing something close to his ceiling.
Samantha Previte: Our D.J. Moore dream died so Terrace Marshall could live.
Marshall has now posted two good games in a row. In Week 8, the Year 2 wideout caught 4-of-9 targets for 87 yards against Atlanta. In Week 9, he caught 3-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati despite a mid-game change at quarterback. Moore was a non-factor and caught 2-of-6 targets for 24 yards.
Better days are ahead for Moore and Marshall, the latter of which was the WR16 in half-PPR scoring. Marshall should continue to see an uptick in targets and is a viable deep-league flex play with the Falcons on deck.
Marshall was the WR27 last week against Atlanta's exploitable pass defense, which ranks second-worst in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year.
Mike Triplett: I mentioned last week with the Chargers’ Josh Palmer that my favorite type of waiver-wire investment is a young player with high upside and a growing opportunity. Marshall definitely fits both of those categories as a 2021 second-round pick who is now finally getting an opportunity in Carolina’s trade-depleted offense.
The best news of all is that he’s facing an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs this year. … Unfortunately, that trade-depleted offense is also very uninspiring, so it’s hard to count on consistent production long term.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Free Agent
Koerner: Initial reports had Beckham returning in December, but he has progressed in his rehab fast enough to potentially return to action as soon as this month.
His most likely landing spots are the Cowboys, Packers, Giants and Rams. The Packers and Giants offer the most upside, considering he would have a path to become the No. 1 target in either offense given their WR struggles. In any scenario, OBJ will likely provide rest-of-season WR3 value, which makes him a priority add for WR-needy teams.
It's tough to find a potential top-36 receiver on the waiver wire this late into the season — OBJ is that guy.
Previte: This is a purely speculative add as Beckham has yet to be signed.
The free agent, who's been rehabbing a torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl, has been floating around since the end of last season. The teams rumored to be interested in his services are the Bills, Packers, Rams, Cowboys and Giants.
The Packers, Rams and Giants strike me as the neediest of this list. Green Bay would likely be Beckham's best bet (though he already knows the Rams' playbook should he rejoin his old squad).
Triplett: This is probably your last chance to pounce on Beckham if you have high hopes for him and want to beat the rush.
FOX Sports insider Jay Glazer reported on Sunday that Beckham will be “ready and cleared by the end of this week, full cleared, no limitations.” And Glazer said he expects several contending teams to get in a bidding war. Now, some of those teams are more attractive than others — but it’s a safe bet OBJ won’t wind up in an abyss like Carolina or Indianapolis.
He’s worth a flier if you have the bench space, though you need to temper expectations for how long it will take him to work his way back to a significant role. Meanwhile, it’s worth considering both Beckham and receiver Calvin Ridley in deeper dynasty leagues if you already have eyes on 2023.
Ridley is a major unknown after all the time he has missed over the past two seasons, but the Jaguars made a pretty significant investment in him at the trade deadline. They’ll give him every opportunity to return to prominence.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., Dolphins
Koerner: Wilson is already familiar with the Dolphins' run scheme as head coach Mike McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan/49ers coaching tree. Therefore, it was no surprise that Wilson was able to fit right into the offense after just one week of practice.
However, it was a bit of a surprise to see him form a near 50/50 timeshare with Raheem Mostert in his debut. Their underlying usage was split down the middle, yet Wilson managed to have a bigger fantasy game thanks to his involvement in the passing game.
I consider this backfield to be more of a murky RBBC, with a slight edge to Wilson, but not that we should ignore Mostert. Both could post RB3/Flex value with split work, and both possess RB2 upside if one gets hurt.
If Wilson was dropped in your league, I would consider adding him as a RB3/Flex with potential RB2 upside. He doesn’t even need an injury to cash in on that upside. Plus, Mostert is a 30-year-old back with an extensive injury history.
Previte: After writing Wilson off, the former 49er is back and already outperforming Mostert. He logged nine carries for 51 yards and caught three passes for 21 yards and a touchdown in the Dolphins' 35-32 win over the Bears.
Mostert saw nine carries for 26 yards and a touchdown, but he was not involved in the passing game. Mostert was also out-snapped 28 to 27 by Wilson, who finished as the RB10 in half-PPR scoring in Week 9.
Wilson has been productive in the past and was the RB12 from Weeks 2 to 5 after Elijah Mitchell got hurt. That said, I would temper expectations the rest of the season as I am not sure how many more 67-point games the Dolphins will be involved in. This could develop into a true 1A/1B situation with Mostert mixed in as long as he is healthy.
The Dolphins next face the Browns' porous run defense, which ranks bottom five in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Wilson may be relevant once again.
Triplett: I hate timeshares like these. Between Wilson and Mostert, it feels impossible to label either guy as 1A or 1B.
This doesn’t feel like an all-in FAAB bid, but how can you not take notice after Wilson just arrived via a Tuesday trade and immediately wound up with more snaps (28-27), touches (12-9), catches (3-0), yards from scrimmage (72-26), red-zone snaps (8-3) and red-zone touches (5-2) than Mostert?
Obviously, Wilson is pretty familiar with the offense that McDaniel runs since they worked together in San Francisco (along with Mostert). The Dolphins also traded away veteran back Chase Edmonds while Mostert’s injury history leaves the door open for an even bigger potential role.
TE Cole Kmet, Bears
Koerner: Kmet erupted for a 5/41/2 receiving line and also chipped in two carries for nine yards in Week 9. However, I’m not buying him as a potential TE1 option going forward.
Yes, we saw Justin Fields have a true breakout game last week, but it was mostly with his legs. Despite being in a 35-32 shootout, Fields still finished with 123 passing yards. It’s a reminder that Kmet is probably going to need to score TDs in order to post a top-12 week.
There have been plenty of other waiver-wire TEs I have sounded the alarm on during the season: Hayden Hurst, Gerald Everett, Taysom Hill and Greg Dulcich. Hopefully you were able to add one of them if you were looking for a long-term option. Unfortunately, Kmet doesn’t fall into that category.
Previte: Kmet had a monster game in the Bears' loss to the Dolphins, catching 5-of-6 targets for 42 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
To say that Kmet had a slow start to the year would be a gross understatement. He bageled in back-to-back weeks to start the season and was the overall TE34 from Weeks 1 through 7.
Kmet and the Bears' offense, however, have shown major signs of life in the last couple weeks. He also found the end zone in Week 8 against the Cowboys and finished top 12 at the position.
He will have prime opportunities to repeat this success over the next two weeks against the Lions and Falcons, whose defenses are two of the worst against the pass and have allowed the fifth-most and eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, respectively.
Triplett: Fields has been a game-changing revelation for fantasy over the past month, so there’s a temptation in thinking that he may bring Kmet along for the ride. The tight end had a season-high five catches on Sunday and his first three TD catches have also come over the past two weeks.
But I remain skeptical that the Bears are suddenly unlocking some newfound passing offense at the same time that Fields has started running for historic numbers. I’d rather invest in other promising young TEs like Greg Dulcich, Cade Otton and maybe even Noah Fant.
TE Noah Fant, Seahawks
Koerner: Fant went off for a 5/96/0 line against the Cardinals, but while he’s a very talented player who is starting to enter his prime at age 24, I don’t think he’s a must-add outside of deeper TE-premium formats.
The Cardinals rank 30th in DVOA against TEs, so we should always take productive games against them with a grain of salt.
More importantly, Fant typically only runs a route on 55-60% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. You are rarely going to see a TE with that sort of underlying usage provide steady TE1 value (unless they are a generational talent like Kyle Pitts).
There have been plenty of potential RoS TE1 options to be had on the waiver wire this season. I’m afraid Fant isn’t one of them.
WR Samori Toure, Packers
Koerner: Due to the plethora of injuries to the Packers' WR room, Toure has seen his routes run rate spike into the 45% range over the past two weeks.
He’s made some big plays and will likely see an increase in playing time with Romeo Doubs expected to miss time. Toure has profiled as a deep threat so far with a 21.8 aDot on the season. It’s the role that MVS left behind once he signed with the Chiefs.
If Toure continues to mainly see downfield targets, it makes him a weekly boom/bust type of player. I’m not convinced he will see enough targets to trust as a WR3 or better (for now), so he isn’t a player I would be too aggressive trying to obtain (outside of deeper leagues).
Plus, there is a chance the Packers bring in Odell Beckham, which would almost certainly stymie Toure’s upside.
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