Perry: The Triple-Digit Longshots Worth a Bet at the 2019 Houston Open

Oct 08, 2019 10:41 PM EDT
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Thomas J. Russo, Pictured: Lucas Bjerregaard

This week marks the PGA Tour’s return to Houston for the first time in about 18 months.

Prior to the Tour’s schedule change, The Houston Open was known as the event immediately preceding The Masters. But it was left off last season’s calendar due to sponsorship issues and has since been shifted to the Fall Swing.

This used to be one of my favorite betting events of the year. We’d get a few stars at the top who were all focused on Augusta, but their presence would increase the odds down the board and we’d find value on some longshots.

That doesn’t appear to be the case this year.


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The Course

The Golf Club of Houston is pretty long at just over 7,400 yards for a par 72, but is one of the easier stops on tour. The winner will need to get into the high teens under par most likely.

There’s a lot of room off the tee for the bombers, but there is some water in play on about half the holes. Overall, I’ll be looking for good total drivers who can putt well on Bermuda Greens.

The Favorites

Henrik Stenson (+900) is the clear-cut favorite in this weak field. No other golfer is listed shorter than +2000.

Anyone who has shown any signs of life during the Fall Swing has had their odds slashed dramatically. For instance, Brian Harman is behind Stenson at +2000. We backed him at +7500 last week and he was never really in contention. But that’s enough in this field to push him to the top of the board.

Cameron Champ, who won at The Safeway two weeks ago, is at +2200 along with Daniel Berger and Scottie Scheffler. Just behind them is the 2017 champion, Russell Henley, at +2500

I can’t really recommend backing anyone in this range. We’ve invested in a couple of these guys in recent events, but when the odds are cut to this extent, I’m just going to look elsewhere.

The Mid-Tier

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