2019 Mayakoba Golf Classic Betting Odds & Preview: There’s Plenty of Value Down the Board
Bill Streicher, USA Today Sports. Pictured: C.T. Pan
The PGA Tour returns after a rare week off with its annual fall stop in Mexico for the Mayakoba Classic, the tournament that will now forever be known as the spot Matt Kuchar low-balled his caddy.
Kuchar is back this week at the top of the betting odds on a course we’ve had some success on the last two years. Patton Kizzire won here for us two years ago at +6000 and Danny Lee was second to Kuch a year ago.
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El Cameleon is a short, easy course that measures just under 7,000 yards for a par 71. Expect a birdie-fest where the winner will need to put up a score at or around 20-under par.
The driver is about as irrelevant here as any course on tour. It’s short, as mentioned above, so you don’t need to bomb it off the tee. There also isn’t much rough, so accuracy really isn’t too important either. It’s truly a second shot course where a guy needs to get dialed in with the wedges and get a hot putting week.
The course has a strong correlation with the Sony Open in Hawaii. The last two winners, Kizzire and Kuchar, followed this victory up by winning the Sony two months later. Two other champs, Johnson Wagner and Mark Wilson, have won both events in their careers.
This tournament has only been held 12 times and one-third of those winners also grabbed a victory in Hawaii, so that’s a good place to start the research.
Kuchar leads the way here at +1400 after winning a year ago. He’s followed by Jason Day at +1600 and Viktor Hovland at +1800. Those are the only three players in the field beneath the +2000 threshold.
Players like Tony Finau, Russell Knox, Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann and Abraham Ancer are all below that +3000 number.
Of the group, Knox has been the most consistent, finishing in the top 10 his last three appearances. He’s also reached a playoff in 2015 before coming up short to Graeme McDowell.
This has been the range to find the winners in recent seasons. We have had someone less than +3000 win this event since Harris English in 2013.
And English is where we’ll start the card this week at +5000. He’s obviously won here before and is in great form with three top six finishes this fall.
We’ll also go with Brian Harman here at +6000. He’s not enjoyed English’s success here, but has solid results at the Sony, including a fourth in 2018.
I’m also adding Russell Henley at +8000. He hasn’t played here much, but does have a win at the Sony.
With the driver neutralized here, I’m going to take a few extra chances on some players in the triple digits. We have a lot of shorter hitters in this range and in most weeks these players aren’t going to contend. But this course makes them playable.
We’ll start with Fabian Gomez at 125-1. Not a surprise, but he’s another Sony winner. He was also seventh two weeks ago in Bermuda at a short course that provided a lot of birdie opportunities.
I also like Brian Stuard at 100-1. He’s been a runner-up on two occasions here and has four top-10 finishes at the Sony. He’s one of the shortest hitters out there, but has a good short game and is accurate with the approaches.
We’ll also take a chance on Mark Hubbard at 110-1. He finished T2 at Houston in October and has two other top-15 finishes in the Fall Swing. Hubbard has gained strokes with his approach in four of his last five starts.
I’m also going to back CT Pan here at 160-1. This is more of a play based on how I think he should fit, rather than for or course history. He’s a shorter hitter who relies on his approach to succeed. His lone win came at Harbour Town, another short course. He finished inside the top-20 last time he played here, so I think his game should fit, even if he doesn’t have the high-end finish on his resume yet.
Lastly, we’ll back Rafael Campos at 250-1. Campos usually plays well in the Caribbean tournaments and that’s about it. He finished inside the top-20 at his last start in Bermuda and these shorter courses are his only real chance to get the results he’ll need to keep his card.
The Mayakoba Card
- Harris English +5000 (.66 units)
- Brian Harman +6000 (.55 units)
- Russell Henley +8000 (.41 units)
- Brian Stuard +10000 (.33 units)
- Mark Hubbard +11000 (.3 units)
- Fabian Gomez +12500 (.27 units)
- CT Pan +16000 (.21 units)
- Rafael Campos +25000 (.13 units)
Total Stake: 2.86 units