Adon’s Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader Bets: Another Quick Start for Rory Sabbatini?

Adon’s Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader Bets: Another Quick Start for Rory Sabbatini? article feature image
Credit:

Ian Rutherford, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Rory Sabbatini

  • Adon S. runs through his favorite First-Round Leader bets for the 2019 Wyndham Championship, which begins on Thursday, August 1 at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina.

The last tournament of the regular season is upon us.

The 2019 Wyndham Championship takes place at a familiar venue for golf fans and handicappers alike — Sedgefield Country Club.

All you need to do is look at course-horses, like Webb Simpson and Brandt Snedeker, to deduce that this is a plodder’s track that emphasizes driving accuracy over distance.

If you are new to First Round Leader wagering, check out my strategy guide here.

I will be targeting some of my favorite fast starters that have proven success in this part of the country and are good putters on these Bermuda greens. A hot putter will be key with the low scoring that always takes place at this event.

As far as the weather goes, I don’t see a wave advantage since the wind looks calm throughout Thursday and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast all day.

I know the card below looks long, but most of these guys are priced at terrific longshot odds. I am still risking 1 unit total to win 10 units.

Rory Sabbatini

Odds: 50-1 (.2u)
Tee Time: 8:20 a.m. ET

Sabbatini is becoming known as “The Real Rory” in DFS and gambling social media circles, due to his success this season (relative to value).

The Slovak-by-way-of-South-Africa has a great résumé on Donald Ross courses. Sabbs nearly grabbed back-to-back First-Round Leader titles at Hilton Head — a great comp course that features Bermuda Greens and a similar layout to Sedgefield.

Sabbatini is currently ranked 13th in Round 1 scoring average on the PGA Tour.

Abraham Ancer

Odds: 70-1 (.14u)
Tee Time: 8:20 a.m. ET

Ancer ranks third in this field in “Round 1 strokes gained: total” per FantasyNational, which speaks volumes about this favorite Thursday target since he has had a very inconsistent season. Ancer was the co-FRL at the Travelers event a month ago and was a notorious Thursday standout last season. Watching him overseas in the build up to the Open Championship a few weeks ago has me convinced he is on his way to a strong finish this season.

Bill Haas

Odds: 90-1 (.11u)
Tee time: 7 a.m. ET

The first of four players on this list with local ties, Haas was born in Charlotte and attended Wake Forest. This event has been one of his biggest money-makers over his career and I actually like his form coming into Sedgefield.

He has two Round 1 top 10s over his last three events and has gained nearly six strokes over the field with his irons at his last laser-measured event, the John Deere Classic. Haas also has led after Round 1 at this event once before.

J.T. Poston

Odds: 90-1 (.11u)
Tee time: 8:30 a.m. ET

“The Postman” is a Hickory, N.C. native who went to college at Western Carolina University and is one of the best young Bermuda putters on tour.

JT was the First-Round Leader two weeks ago at the Barbasol, opening with a scorching 62.

He is one of the many young guys on tour who I prefer backing in this market as opposed to the actual outright market.

Nick Watney

Odds: 90-1 (.11u)
Tee time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Watney has a FRL title to his name at this event but it’s his putter and recent success on similar greens in North Carolina that draw me to him this week.

Last year, Watney finished second down the road at Quail Hollow, where he gained 6.5 strokes putting on the same type of champion Bermuda Greens.

Last time out, Watney gained six strokes over the John Deere field with his putter. He also sat second after Round 1 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he posted a 64 only to be outdone by Nate Lashley’s 63.

Ryan Armour

Odds: 100-1 (.1u)
Tee time: 12:30 p.m. ET

Armour has a fourth and eighth-place finish at this event the last two years. His success at Sedgefield, coupled with his recent Thursday performances put him on the card.

Armour was the co-FRL with Ancer at the Travelers and then proceeded to shoot a 64 the very next Thursday in Detroit.

Harold Varner III

Odds: 110-1 (.09u)
Tee time: 8:10 a.m. ET

HV3 is another North Carolina native and has a Round 1 top 5 in one of his three prior starts at the Wyndham.

Varner has been one of my favorite Thursday targets to start his career and was the First-Round Leader at the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier in the year.

He is another young player that I only look to back in this market. It is really hard to close tournaments and Varner learned that the tough way when he was in the final pairing with Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship.

Johnson Wagner

Odds: 125-1 (.08u)
Tee time: 1:30 p.m. ET

Wagner resides in Charlotte and is the prototype player for this course, accurate off the tee and excellent with the flat-stick, which is backed up by his fifth-place finish three years ago.

Even though I don’t have many hard Round 1 stats for Wagner, due to his status on tour, trust me when I say he is one for a hot start, especially when he gets that weapon-of-a-putter going on these familiar greens. At these odds that is all you need sometimes.

Joel Dahmen

Odds: 125-1 (.08u)
Tee time: 8:30 a.m. ET

We couldn’t close the regular season without giving Dahmen one more nod in this space, even though he has seemingly cooled off since that torrid stretch of three First Round Leader titles earlier this year.

In fact it was here in North Carolina at the Wells Fargo where he accrued his most recent Thursday triumph, co-leading with Rory McIlroy after Round 1.

His odds now have reflected his recent play but I am more than happy to take a shot at Dahmen rekindling some of his Thursday magic on these Bermuda Greens.

Total Risk: 1.02 units