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Perry’s BMW PGA Championship Betting Odds & Picks: Englishmen, Reed Highlight Favorites on Euro Tour

Perry’s BMW PGA Championship Betting Odds & Picks: Englishmen, Reed Highlight Favorites on Euro Tour article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Tommy Fleetwood.

The PGA Tour highlights the golf world this week with its flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in England.

We’ll get a strong field with many of the top European golfers, along with Patrick Reed making the trip across the pond for the event.


The Course

Wentworth checks in at 7,284 yards for a par-72 course, usually proving not to be overly difficult unless heavy winds kick in. Nothing out of the ordinary appears in the early weather forecast, so the winner could be in the 15-20-under par range with good conditions. (Danny Willett won in 2019 at 20-under par.)

It tends to be a second-shot golf course where established names rise to the top. Three of past six winners of this tournament (Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari and Willett) have a major championship to their name.

For those without that high caliber win on the resume, iron play tends to go a long way for success. We saw that when Byeong-hun An won in his first appearance at the event in 2015. Alex Noren also has a win here, and much of his success has come on courses where the approach game is similarly paramount.

The Favorites

Reed and Tommy Fleetwood opened as the co-favorites, and you can find Fleetwood at +1100 and Reed at +1200 on BetMGM as of Monday night.

Reed was fourth at Wentworth a year ago in his debut at the event, while Fleetwood doesn’t have a strong history on a course that should fit his style. However, he has finished inside the top three in his last two PGA Tour starts in Europe, including a playoff loss last week to Aaron Rai at the Scottish Open.

Tyrrell Hatton (+1600 on bet365), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1600) and Justin Rose (+1800) make up the next group, all playing in their home country on a course that each will be very familiar with.

Hatton has struggled at Wentworth at times, finishing outside the top 25 in five of his six starts. Fitzpatrick has been solid, making the cut in each of his four appearances with a couple of top-15 finishes, as well. Rose has finished as the runner-up twice, coming closest in 2007 when he lost in a playoff.

Eric Van Rooyen (+2500 on BetMGM) and Thomas Pieters (+3000) make up the final group of contenders at the top. Van Rooyen has a couple top 20s in two starts but has yet to truly contend at Wentworth. Pieters hasn’t had much success at the Surrey course, missing the cut in three of his six starts with a 14th in 2017 as his highlight.

The Mid-Tier

I’ve got a trio of plays in this range, where I’ll trend toward more established players like the ones we’ve seen win previously.

We’ll start with Shane Lowry at +2800 on DraftKings. Lowry has played fairly well at Wentworth, finishing inside the top 15 in seven of his last nine starts, including a second-place finish to McIlroy in 2014. He’s never needed great form coming into the event either to achieve that success, so the missed cut a couple weeks back in Ireland isn’t of much concern for me.

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I’ll also go with Martin Kaymer at +4000 on BetMGM. Kaymer has had the best approach game in Europe this season and has come close to victory on two occasions already this summer. His history at Wentworth is checkered, but four top 20s in his last eight starts shows that he can contend there when the game is right.

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Lastly in this range, I’ll go with Lucas Herbert at +4000 on BetMGM. He doesn’t have much history here, missing the cut last year, but the form is where it needs to be, having finished fourth and seventh in each of the past two weeks.

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All three are strong iron players and check off the second-shot requirement I’m looking for here.

The Longshots

This hasn’t been a tournament where a lot of winners come out of nowhere, but I’ll take one look down the board on Eddie Pepperell at 100-1 on DraftKings. Pepperell has had a battle with form and health all summer with a string of missed cuts and withdraws.

But he came in ninth last week in Scotland, so the game looks to be trending back up. He’s also slightly gaining strokes in all four areas on the European Tour.

The history hasn’t been good to Pepperell at Wentworth, though, but a sixth-place finish in 2013 means that he can compete there if the game is in the proper shape.

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The BMW Card

  • Shane Lowry +2800 (.94 units)
  • Martin Kaymer +3300 (.83 units)
  • Lucas Herbert +4000 (.83 units)
  • Eddie Pepperell +10000 (.33 units)

Total Stake: 2.93 units

[Bet Perry’s card now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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