2020 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter Most This Week at TPC Summerlin?

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Collin Morikawa is 22-1 to win the CJ Cup. Credit: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images.

The PGA TOUR season brings us to Las Vegas this week to play the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. TPC Summerlin is a par 71 measuring 7,255 yards and featuring bentgrass greens. The tournament has been a staple on tour since 1992.

The field is relatively stacked this week, as we’ll be seeing a lot of highly-ranked golfers we haven’t seen since the U.S. Open. Some notable additions making the trip to Las Vegas include Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Wolff, and Webb Simpson.

Past Winners at TPC Summerlin

  • 2019: Kevin Na (-22)
  • 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21) 
  • 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9)
  • 2016: Rod Pampling (-20)
  • 2015: Smylie Kauffman (-16)
  • 2014: Ben Martin (-20)
  • 2013: Webb Simpson (-24)

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for TPC Summerlin to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.


 


Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

In 2018, TPC was redesigned to add more bunkers in the fairway closer to where current professionals are driving the ball. The course also has three reachable Par 5s, so hitting it long and straight should provide many birdie and eagle opportunities.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+24.3) (+700)
  2. Cameron Champ (+18.1) (+9000)
  3. Jason Kokrak (+16.7) (+3300)
  4. Sergio Garcia (+16.3) (+3300)
  5. Matthew Wolff (+15.8) (+2500)

Fairways Gained

TPC Summerlin ranks in the top 10 of courses in which driving accuracy is most important and predictive of the winner. Looking at past champions and course horses, guys who find the fairway are always a staple on the leaderboard (Simpson, Cantlay, Na, etc.). Accuracy should prove to be more important than distance this week, as the course will punish players who miss the fairway. In a tournament in which making a lot of birdies will be crucial, players will need to find the fairway. This is very much a positional golf course.

  1. Tyler Duncan (+39.4)(+12500)
  2. Collin Morikawa (+37.3)(+2200)
  3. Chez Reavie (+31.8)(+9000)
  4. Sungjae Im (+34.2)(+3300)
  5. Kyle Stanley (+30.5)(+12500)


Strokes Gained: Around the Green

TPC Summerlin features a large number of bunkers both off the fairway and around the greens. Sand save percentage and scrambling both rank very highly as important factors this week, so I used a statistic that encompasses both. In a low scoring event, getting up and down to save pars from the rough and bunkers will be imperative.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Harris English (+18.2)(+3300)
  2. Luke Donald (+15.6)(+50000)
  3. Brian Harman (+14.9)(+6600)
  4. Jason Day (+13.9)(+3300)
  5. Webb Simpson (+12.2)(+900)

SG: Putting (Bentgrass greens)

Looking at past leaderboards at the Shriners, it’s obvious that bentgrass specialists seem to perform very well at TPC Summerlin. Na, DeChambeau, and Cantlay all putt better on bentgrass and have been excellent here in the past.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Andrew Putnam (+25.1)(+50000)
  2. Denny McCarthy (+23.1)(+8000)
  3. Charles Howell III (+22.4)(+10000)
  4. Jason Day (+22.2)(+3300)
  5. Harris English (+21.7)(+2800)


Opportunities Gained

While TPC Summerlin does present a few challenges, scoring is generally relatively easy at the course; it ranks in the bottom 25% of courses on tour in terms of difficulty. Therefore, golfers will need to present themselves with a lot of birdie opportunities. This statistic shows which golfers give themselves the most opportunities from 15 feet and closer.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Jason Dufner (+28.0)(+20000)
  2. Matthew Wolff (+25.2)(+2500)
  3. Harold Varner III (+24.9)(+8000)
  4. Russell Henley (+24.5)(+4500)
  5. Emiliano Grillo (+21.0)(+8000)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of Fairways Gained (25%) SG: OTT: (22%), Opportunities Gained (15%), SG: ARG (15%), SG: Putting (Bentgrass) 18%.

    1. Collin Morikawa (+2200)
    2. Brian Harman (+6600)
    3. Webb Simpson (+900)
    4. Rickie Fowler (+3300)
    5. Scottie Scheffler (+2200)
    6. Harris English (+2800)
    7. Ryan Moore (+6600)
    8. Si-Woo Kim (+6600)
    9. Matthew Wolff (+2500)
    10. Henrik Norlander(+9000)

[Bet the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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