Charles Schwab Challenge 2021 Betting Picks & Preview: Can Old Vets Sneak Up at Colonial?
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Collin Morikawa at the Zurich Classic.
- Josh Perry breaks down his card for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge, led by Matt Wallace and Emiliano Grillo.
- Old players have had a tendency to sneak up at Colonial Country Club -- can they outlast the young stars now at the top of the board?
Entering Sunday, completely dead from a gambling perspective made it much easier to just kick back and enjoy Phil’s greatness.
Patrick Cantlay gave us a little sweat on the back nine, but he was never really in it. Although the ball-striking was there, so he’s one to keep an eye on for Memorial next week.
The focus now moves back to Texas and Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. It’s a place we see every year, and those are the courses where we tend to have more success, but this one has eluded me throughout the years.
Colonial has played host to the event since 1946. It’s a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. If the wind picks up, it can play fairly difficult. If it’s calm, we’ll probably see a winner near 20-under par.
This has never really been a bomber’s course. Daniel Berger enters as the defending champ. Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth have wins on their resumé here, as well.
Colonial usually is more of a precision course where guys can find the fairway and let their irons and short game go work.
Jordan Spieth opens as the +1000 favorite and rightfully so. He’s finished inside the top 15 in seven of his eight career starts, including a win and two runner-up finishes from 2015-2017.
Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa are right behind at +1200. Morikawa let this event slip away to Daniel Berger in a playoff last year. Thomas made his debut here a year ago, finishing 10th.
Berger comes in next at +1800 off that win. He’s followed by Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau at +2000. Ancer is looking especially good given his form, but it’s hard to back either of them when Patrick Reed is sitting right behind them at +2200.
Reed is in that group with Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris, who are also looking to get that first win and head back to Texas where both are fairly comfortable.
Of the group, I’d lean Morikawa at the top, followed by Ancer and Zalatoris based on recent form. It feels like a week where one of these younger guys finally gets that first win given they’re all in great form.
But Colonial has a way of bring in the older veterans.
I’ll pepper in a few plays in this range, starting with Kevin Streelman at +6600 on BetMGM. He’s coming off a solid week at the PGA Championship and has been playing pretty well recently. His game fits the mold of previous winners here: Keep the driver in play, have a good approach game and get hot with the putter.
I’ll also go with Emilano Grillo at +7000 on FanDuel. Grillo has some mixed results here but was third a couple years ago. He’s also another guy in some good form, finishing top 25 in four of his five starts prior to the PGA Championship.
For the last guy in this range, I’ll go back to Matt Wallace one more time at +7000 on DraftKings. Wallace missed the cut in his debut here last year, but that was off the COVID layoff, and he’s in much better form this time around. I’m not sure it’s the best fit for him since the driver tends to be his strength in Europe. But I think he grabs a win somewhere this year, so I’ll try him again in Texas, where he’s notched some good results this season.
I’ve got a couple plays down here, starting with Talor Gooch at 130/1 on FanDuel. Gooch just keeps making cuts each week, and he’s a guy I’ve been waiting to pop up since he made his way from the Korn Ferry Tour a few years back.
I’ll also back Scott Stallings at 140/1 on DraftKings. Stallings has been on a hot streak with the putter lately. And while that’s likely to cool off soon, he’s started to turn the ball-striking around. If he can find one more hot week with the putter and continue the strong iron play, he could contend here.
The Colonial Card
- Kevin Streelman +6600 (.5 units)
- Emiliano Grillo +7000 (.47 units)
- Matt Wallace +7000 (.47 units)
- Talor Gooch +13000 (.25 units)
- Scott Stallings +14000 (.24 units)
Total Stake: 1.93 units