2021 TOUR Championship Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Best Prop Bets at East Lake
Rob Carr / Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay
The PGA TOUR season comes to a close this week with the excitement of the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. After a long season of chasing FedExCup points, players have the chance to seize the Cup (and the $15 million prize that comes with it).
Unlike nearly every other PGA Tour event, the Tour Championship comes with some quirks in the scoring format. To reward past play this season, players will start with staggered scores, many already under par.
That makes for an interesting challenge for bettors, but it especially makes things interesting in the props market. Every angle must be considered, and there’s value to be found amongst the staggered starts and varying odds at different books.
Bryson DeChambeau or Patrick Cantlay to win the FedEx Cup (+180 at DraftKings)
This may be recency bias talking, but during last week’s duel between DeChambeau and Cantlay, both looked unbeatable. They’ll carry that momentum to East Lake Golf Club, but more importantly, thanks to the format of the Tour Championship, they’ll start in the front of the pack on the leaderboard.
Cantlay will enter the tournament with a two-shot lead, beginning Thursday at 10-under par. DeChambeau is not far behind, starting in third place at 7-under. There are a host of players fully capable of outrunning the manufactured lead, but these odds make for a safe bet if last week’s stars use their head start to bring home the big prize.
Sam Burns, vs. Harris English and Jordan Spieth (+240 at DraftKings)
Each of these players will be starting the tournament at 4-under par, so it’s curious to see Burns as the underdog in this group. He’s played the best of these three in the FedExCup Playoffs and has been one of the hottest golfers in the world in the last month. He has two top-10s in his last three starts and hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open.
Spieth and English, meanwhile, have been fairly pedestrian in the postseason. Neither has notched a finish in the top 25 at either FedExCup Playoff event, a troubling statistic given the limited fields of the postseason.
Burns is making his first appearance at East Lake, a potential cause for concern, but neither Spieth nor English has excelled there recently.
Spieth won at East Lake back in 2015, but since then he hasn’t played his best in Atlanta. According to DataGolf, he’s gained 1.81 strokes per round at East Lake, below where the analytics would expect based on his play elsewhere and fit at the course. English has made the Tour Championship just twice and has not finished inside the top 10.
With these odds, Burns is the pick in this trio.
Jon Rahm to be the low European player (-225 at Parx)
The world’s top player has been incredible in the back half of this season. He has not finished outside the top 10 in any of his last seven events, except the Memorial, where he was forced to withdraw with the lead due to COVID protocols.
He has not finished outside the top 10 in an event he finished since May. In Rahm’s last 18 completed events, he has 14 top 10s. He is the best golfer in the world, and he’s always near the top of the leaderboard.
This prop feels too good to be true. Not only would Rahm be nearly the odds-on favorite among a group of just four Europeans in the Tour Championship, but he’s starting at least three shots clear of his competition here. Rahm will begin the week at 6-under par, with Viktor Hovland at 3-under, Rory McIlroy at 2-under, and Sergio Garcia at even.
One of them could catch Rahm, but it would be a surprise given his dominance this year.