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2022 3M Open Round 3 Odds & Picks: Looking for Value to Chase Down Scott Piercy

2022 3M Open Round 3 Odds & Picks: Looking for Value to Chase Down Scott Piercy article feature image
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(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) Pictured: Scott Piercy.

Scoring conditions were much better on Friday at TPC Twin Cities as the morning wave got in under par. Even the afternoon saw conditions nearly two strokes better than the opening round. Many players took full advantage, but it was Scott Piercy who backed up his opening round 65 by doing one better and posting a 64 on Friday. Needless to say my second round fade did not play out too well, but we’ll look to do a little better as things head to the weekend.

Piercy will carry a three-shot lead over Emiliano Grillo into Saturday and Grillo is also two shots ahead of Callum Tarren, who had the round of the day with an 8-under 63 as he charged up the board from even par. Those three will tee off together on Saturday as players go off early in the morning to try to avoid some forecasted afternoon storms. This will also keep everyone in just about the same playing conditions on Moving Day, eliminating any edge that may have been available.

Overall, there are only seven players within six shots of the lead, which creates some very defined separation in the field. Still, with 36 holes to play, we shouldn’t be eliminating many from contention — especially with a player at the top who doesn’t have a good track record of late. Let’s see who stands out as the 3M Open heads into the weekend.

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Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3

I’m not really looking to take a bite on the odds at the top of the board, but if I were to look at one player, it would be Tom Hoge. He ranks at the top of the field this week in SG: Ball Striking as he added to the 5.76 shots he gained on approach on Thursday and continued to hit it well off the tee.

Hoge’s opportunities are being lost on the greens at this point as he has lost strokes to the field in each of the first two rounds with the flatstick. He’s a guy with a win already this season and while he’s been up and down since then, he usually holds form during the weeks he has it. I expect him to stay in the mix as we go deeper into the weekend at the 3M Open.

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Chesson Hadley is the player within the top 10 who I would take a shot on from an odds perspective. He had bounced back from a couple of early bogeys to climb to 6-under on the week through 17 holes before he made a costly mistake at the par-5 18th. Hadley dunked one in the water as he was going for it in two from the fairway and lost 1.48 shots to the field with that one swing alone. His closing bogey will undoubtedly leave a sour taste in his mouth, but the way he is playing gives him some value at +7000 on BetRivers.

My last buy is likely too far back to consider for anything in the outright market, but Stewart Cink will be a core guy for me everywhere else on Saturday. He ranks as the second-best player in the field with his ball striking through two rounds, but is 138th in putting. He’s the prototypical buy going into Moving Day at 2-under on the week and I’m hoping the positive momentum from the final hole on Saturday will carry him into the weekend for a low score.

3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3

The biggest shock of the week is definitely Scott Piercy and while I don’t see a scenario where this play continues throughout the weekend, I won’t put in another fade on the leader. Instead, I’ll go to another big shock with Robert Streb. He’s missed the cut in his past three events and in seven of his past nine tournaments, including the Barracuda, where he was well below the cutline in that alternate field event. There was nothing suggesting to expect this from Streb this week and I think we will start to see it fade as we go into Saturday because he is relying heavily on the short game to put him in his current position.

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I thought we might see Sungjae Im make a move up the leaderboard on Friday once it was clear that scoring conditions would stay calm for the afternoon wave. He started to make some moves, but ultimately fell back as his ball striking waned. I’m hesitant to put in the fade on a player of his talent, as we are lacking that in this field, but the numbers certainly point to it for him. He lost strokes to the field on approach and tee-to-green on Friday. Im could just as easily bounce back on Saturday, but his inconsistency, especially with ball striking, has been a consistent concern of late and I’ll point to that as my big reason for the fade into Round 3.

Danny Willett is the other player who sticks out in the same way that Im does for a fade into Saturday. He is one of the lowest players in SG: Tee-to-Green this week of players within the top 20. The difference with Willett is that he hasn’t really made the big mistakes. Instead, he has just been consistently bad, especially on approach. He only gained strokes on the field with his irons on eight approach shots on Friday, but bailed himself out with a putter that gained 5.48 shots on the field.

Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 2

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