2022 Honda Classic Odds & 5 Longshots Picks, Including Hudson Swafford & Nicolai Hojgaard
Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Hudson Swafford.
- The PGA TOUR begins its stretch through Florida with the Honda Classic this week.
- Without some of the usual starpower, there's value further down the odds board at PGA National.
- Shane McNichol breaks down five longshots he sees value in this week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Honda Classic odds via PointsBet
2022 Honda Classic Odds
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+5000|
|Charles Howell III||+7000|
|J. J. Spaun||+15000|
|Dawie Van Der Walt||+50000|
Looking for longshots is no easy feat this week. The PGA Tour swings from the West Coast to Florida, meaning the players who have been in top form could be thrown off by new greens and grass styles.
That geographical change also makes this week a popular spot for top players to take a week off. None of the top 10 players in the world will tee it up this week, opening the door for a lesser name to earn a win while drastically changing the betting odds of some juicier names down the board.
In a week that should be wide open, this collection of five players has a nice balance of recent success and horses for the course at PGA National.
Nicolai Hojgaard +7000
This is a fascinating spot for Hojgaard. Not long ago, he was considered the lesser of the Hojgaard twins, trailing behind his brother Rasmus in terms of accolades and world ranking.
In recent months, however, it’s been Nicolai storming through the international golf scene. In his last 12 worldwide tournaments, all coming on the DP World Tour (formerly known as the European Tour), Nicolai has two victories, four top fives, and seven top 20 finishes. He’s done the majority of his damage with his driver, ranking in the top five in the world in True Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, per DataGolf, over the last six months.
Consistency has been an issue, however. In the five tournaments in his last 12 events where he didn’t finish in the top 20, he failed to make the cut. Now he’s arriving Stateside for his first ever event on the PGA Tour. He’s been hot and cold, but if he catches a hot spot, he’ll contend this weekend. Sportsbooks are all over the map on his odds, with FanDuel pricing him as low at +4100. At 70- 1 on BetRivers, he’s a steal.
C.T. Pan +7000
I really like this spot for C.T. Pan. He’s coming off of a top 10 finish last week at Riviera and returns to a course where he has had success in the past.
He was in the top five at the Honda Classic last season, earning a T3 finish. Back in 2018, he grinded his way to a T17 finish, despite losing more than a stroke to the field on the greens with his putter.
He’s had three finishes of T11 or better since the Tour kicked back into gear in the fall and is due for a win, now nearly two full years after his first and only PGA title at the RBC Heritage.
Hudson Swafford +10000
With the Tour jumping from the West Coast to Florida, I have my eye out for players who are swinging the club well but not capitalizing on the greens. Swafford has been solid with his irons, ranking fifth in the world in True Strokes Gained over the last six months, yet he has one of the most trick-or-treat putters on Tour lately.
At the RSM Classic, he gained over +3.5 strokes with his approach shots but gave most of it back with an ice cold putting week and missed the cut. A few months later at the American Express, Swafford again struck the ball exceptionally and backed it up with the second-best putting week in the field, propelling him to a win.
I like his chances to settle his putter down returning to the East Coast. Swafford is a Florida native who lives in Georgia and should feel more comfortable on and around the greens at PGA National this weekend.
Aaron Rai +10000
In his first season as a member on the PGA Tour, Rai has hit the ground running. He’s made eight out his first nine cuts on Tour, peaking with a T6 finish at Torrey Pines.
Rai has always used his ability to get the ball off the tee successfully to contend and has shown an ability to convert when he is contending in the final round. Rai won three times on the Challenge Tour and twice on the then European Tour, including the 2020 Scottish Open which featured some big names.
It is only a matter of time before Rai kicks down the door and wins a PGA Tour event. At these odds, I’ll jump on him.
Brandon Hagy +30000
This line jumped off the page when I first scrolled in my search for longshots. Hagy is being offered as low at +12000 at FanDuel, in large part because of his prior success at this event.
Hagy was solo second at the Honda Classic last year and has two other top 25 finishes in four career starts at this venue. He’s gained the fourth most strokes per round at PGA National of any player in this week’s field.
Hagy is one of just four players in this week’s field to have three or more top 25 finishes at the Honda Classic in the last five years, joining Michael Thompson, Brendan Steele, and Lucas Glover. All three of those players are offered at +14000 or lower by DraftKings. I’ll take the dice roll at 300-1 for Hagy, even if he’s been ice cold recently.
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