Updated Mexico Open 2022 Odds & 7 Picks for Sahith Theegala, Gary Woodland, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Sahith Theegala (left) and Gary Woodland.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Mexico Open odds via PointsBet
2022 Mexico Open Odds
|Charles Howell III||+5000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+12500|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||+12500|
|Bo Van Pelt||+50000|
|Darren Andrew Points||+50000|
|Dawie Van Der Walt||+50000|
|Juan Cristobal Islas||+50000|
|Santiago de la Fuente||+50000|
|Richard S. Johnson||+50000|
After Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele won the PGA TOUR Tag Team Championship of the world, we’re back to stroke-play this week with the Mexico Open.
Jon Rahm headlines the first edition of this event, which is being held just north of Puerto Vallarta on Mexico’s west coast. Other top names include Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau and former US Open champion Gary Woodland.
The course looks like it will play long at almost 7,500 yards while coming in as just a par-71. It also features paspalum grass, which has factored into our betting analysts’ picks for the week.
We have seven picks before the TOUR heads back to the US for a couple of big events on the annual calendar before the PGA Championship. Check out our staff’s favorite props and outright picks below.
Sahith Theegala — Top 10 (+700)
Jason Sobel: On a board with very little value anywhere because there is a lack of top players, outside of Rahm, we have to dig a little to find it.
I’ve said it so many times over the past few months, but you won’t be getting current Theegala prices for much longer, so keep jumping on ‘em while you can. I certainly don’t mind him for outrights and DFS, but he feels like a smart play for props – especially top-10s, as he’s cashed these tickets in two of his last eight starts. The key word of the week just might be “upside,” as I stated in my weekly preview.
This is a nice week to play some guys you’ve been eyeing for a while, and Theegala certainly makes that list for me.
Matt Jones +5500
Chris Murphy: While the course this week is set up to play long by par-71 standards and could present some wind issues, there really isn’t one set prototype of golfer that is set for success.
I’m going to lean in with an all around player in Matt Jones, who will get the benefit of wide fairways to assist the biggest issue in his game, which is his driver. The wide fairways should allow him to stay in the short grass and put himself in position to use the irons that have led him to top-three finishes twice this year. Jones is best known for his short game and ability to handle difficult wind conditions, both of which are set to come in handy this week in Mexico.
I really like the mid-level odds we are getting on a player that has shown top-tier upside when he brings his full bag with him during a tournament. He has shown that he has winning equity when he has his best, and that isn’t something we can say about many players in this field.
Anirban Lahiri +8000
Matt Vincenzi: One important angle that could be used in finding value in Mexico this week is targeting golfers who have a history of performing well on paspalum fairways and greens. Anirban Lahiri ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum in his past 24 rounds, but his fantastic run of the surface dates back even further.
Lahiri hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR, but he has a couple of wins on the Asian Tour, which features many of the same style courses with paspalum fairways and greens. His victories have come at the Malaysian Open, which was played at CIMB Classic host TPC Kuala Lumpur.
The 34-year-old has posted some good results at the CIMB, including in 2016 when he had the 54-hole lead but finished in third behind Justin Thomas and Hidedki Matsuyama. Luckily for Lahiri, the field this week won’t feature players like that outside of Rahm.
Lahiri has also had a great deal of success at El Camaleón Golf Club, which hosts the Mayakoba Classic in the fall. Lahiri has shown up on the Mayakoba leaderboard with a 10th-place finish in 2018 and 14th-place finish in 2017.
Just last month, Lahiri finished second at the PLAYERS Championship, which was only one stroke behind winner Cameron Smith. He shot 3-under par on Sunday, which I found to be incredibly impressive considering the circumstances.
If Lahiri finds himself in contention this week, he should be much more equipped to earn his first PGA TOUR victory.
Charles Howell III — Top 10 +550
Derek Farnsworth: We often get caught up in golf odds because betting outrights offers so much upside. However, many of the top 10 and top 20 bets are equivalent to betting on a big underdog to win in another sport. Winning with +550 odds in a basketball or football game would be huge.
There are a few reasons to like Howell this week and I’ll start with his statistics. I went back and looked at his approach numbers over the last 18 months, the last 10 months and the last four months. He has gotten progressively better with his irons in every timeframe. Consequently, his birdie rate has improved during that stretch. If we look at the year 2022 alone, he’s fifth in this field in birdie or better percentage.
Throughout his career, Howell has made a living at these kinds of events. His game isn’t exactly suited for the majors, but it is certainly suited for birdie fests. I looked at strokes gained on easy courses, and Howell is top five in this field. I also looked at strokes gained on courses with paspalum grass, and Howell is top five in this field.
Howell recently finished fourth at the Valero Texas Open, his statistics are trending in the right direction and the event should fit his game perfectly. I’m adding a small amount on the outright, but much prefer the top 10 bet at +550.
Brian Stuard — Top 30 (+290)
Rob Bolton: Adhering to our objective here, I’ve eased into one of my favorite combinations of golfer + X-finish.
Stuard is a commodity in the tropics and on paspalum, but we need him to be on form to compel us to donate units to the cause, and he is. Most recently, he’s hung up a T22 and a T7 on paspalum in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, respectively. Going all the way back to Pebble Beach, he’s 9-for-11 with five top-25s.
You too will likely have your go-to combo(s), but the Mexico Open at Vidanta presents an outstanding time to go hard at a top-10, so I’ll second Jason’s move toward Theegala at the top.
Mark Hubbard — Top 20 (+275)
Landon Silinsky: Hubbard is a guy I love targeting at these alternate type field events, as he’s shown to be a much better golfer than most people realize.
Over his past 48 rounds in this field, Hubbard ranks sixth in total strokes gained. The five guys ahead of him are all 35-1 or better to win this event, just to put that in perspective.
Hubbard has been tearing up the Korn Ferry Tour of late, posting top-10 finishes in each of his past three starts. Before that, he finished 15th at the Honda Classic, as well. You can get him to win at 70-1, which is worth a sprinkle, but with the field being as poor as it is we don’t have to be greedy here.
Gary Woodland +2100
Bryan Berryman: Since his missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in early February, Gary Woodland has really turned it on. With three top-10 finishes in his last six starts, he appears to be in prime position to compete this week in the weaker Mexico Open field.
Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 12th in driving distance. He also ranks second overall in my strokes gained statistical stat model, only behind the heavy favorite Jon Rahm.
Combining superior length off the tee with a hot putter could prove to be the winning formula on this 7,400-yard coastal setup. Woodland is set up to do just that and tops the list as my favorite bet to win the Mexico Open at +2100.