2022 Mexico Open Betting Picks: Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ Headline 5 Outrights

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The Zurich Classic was pretty uneventful from a betting standpoint. The favorites hit the gas pedal on Day 1 and never let off. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay led from start to finish without much of a sweat.

On our side, Davis Riley and Will Zalatoris backdoored a top-5, while the longshot play of Mark Hubbard and Ryan Brehm maintained their spot inside the top 20 for some minor returns, but nothing special.

Now, we move on to a new event and new course on the schedule with the Mexico Open. Based on the field, it's clearly not much of a priority for the top names. It's basically looking like Jon Rahm decided to show up to the Puerto Rico Open.

The Course

As we said, it's a new course for the tour so not as much info as normal. Vidanta Vallarta is set to play at a little over 7,400 yards for a par-71 and resembles many of the seaside resort style set ups that we get on TOUR. We're expecting wide fairways, which means the bombers should have an edge at this length. Water in in play throughout, though.

Overall, it seems like length plus some solid mid iron play will be the key this week. Some previous success on Paspalum greens may also help as well.

This course was designed by Greg Norman, who has also been involved with TPC San Antonio and El Camaleon, so Valero and Mayakoba results may provide a little insight, as well.

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The Favorites

Jon Rahm opens between +400 and +500 depending on where you look. He's the player ranked in the top-15 in the world here this week. The emphasis on the driver should help, but this is likely to be fairly low scoring unless the wind picks up so the putting trouble could be problematic here. He's also only finished inside the top 15 once in his past five starts. On talent alone, he's the cream of the crop, but the game hasn't been trending the right way for him.

Then there are a handful of guys in the +2000s like Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau, Kevin Na and Cameron Tringale. Tringale has started to bounce back with a 10th and 12th the last two weeks. Finau has been in a slump, but the emphasis on distance should be a benefit to him. Ancer is playing in his home country and that's been a benefit at Mayakoba at least where he's finished 21st or better his last five starts. Na has some decent results, but not a guy I'm usually looking to play at 7,400 yards.

Of the group, Gary Woodland will open my card at +2500 at Caesars. Woodland has probably been playing the best of that bunch with three top-10s in his last six events. He has missed cuts against the elites at Augusta and Sawgrass, but his other four starts without all of the stars he's gone fifth, fifth, 21st and eighth. The approach game has been trending in the right direction, and he's definitely got the length to take advantage here.

If the Norman design plays a factor that eighth this year was at Valero, where he also placed sixth a year ago. The Mayakoba results aren't as consistent, but he was second there in 2016, as well.

The Mid-Tier

There isn't a lot to get excited about in this range this week, but I'm going to go with Cameron Champ on a flyer at +6000 on DraftKings. Champ hasn't been playing well, but he seemed to get things together at Augusta National, where he gained eight strokes ball striking and finished 10th.

Champ is obviously at his best when he goes out and pounds driver, and this seems like as good of a spot as any for that. He also wins at a far greater rate than any of the guys mixed in around these numbers. He's definitely a boom-or-bust type play, but the price seems fair given the lack of talent in this field.

I'll also go with Scott Stallings at +8000 on BetMGM. Stallings had a pair of top-20s just before the Masters, including one a Valero, before missing a couple of cuts at the RBC Heritage and Zurich. His main problem off the tee has been inaccuracy, but that may not play as big of a factor this week with the wider fairways. The short game has been leading to most of his better results, which isn't also ideal, but he hit the irons well in the missed cut at the RBC Heritage so the ball-striking could be coming around a bit.

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The Longshots

I'll dabble with a couple guys here starting with Wyndham Clark at 100-1 on DraftKings. Clark finished 10th last week at Zurich with Tringale. He also had a good ball-striking week at Harbour Town, so the game appears to be going in the right direction. Clark is also one of the longer guys off the tee, so this is a good setup for him if he can keep it in play.

Finally, we'll close here with Austin Smotherman at 125-1 on BetRivers. Smotherman is a good ball-striker with above-average length and accuracy when he's dialed in. He's gained ground off the tee and with the approach in four of his last five events.

The Mexico Open Card

• Gary Woodland +2500 (1.38 units)
• Cameron Champ +6000 (.55 units)
• Scott Stallings +8000 (.41 units)
• Wyndham Clark +10000 (.33 units)
• Austin Smotherman +15000 (.22 units)

Total Stake: 2.89 units

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