2022 Mexico Open Betting Odds: Mark Hubbard Headlines 4 Longshot Picks in Puerto Vallarta

Picking winners on the PGA Tour is no easy feat. It becomes a lot tougher when the Tour swings into a course for the first time.

That’s the case this week, with the Mexico Open serving as a PGA Tour event for the first time this century. Even when it was played as an event for PGA Tour Latinoamérica or the Web.com/Nationwide Tour in past years, it was never held at the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta.

Any thought of finding a horse for this course is based far more on speculation than past performance.

You may find some value in players who have fared well at other Greg Norman designs (TPC San Antonio and El Camaleon), other courses in Mexico (Chapultepec), other seaside resort courses (think Corales in Puntacana) or even just players who seem to have a game that can adapt to new surroundings.

Somewhere in that mix, combined with how players have fared in recent weeks, you’ll find the kernels of information that can lead to a smart bet.

Keep in mind: when bettors have so little information to work from, so do the sportsbooks. You’re chances of hunting down a dark horse that hits feel a little more likely when everyone is trying to hit a moving target.

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Mark Hubbard +7000 (DraftKings)

Usually when you’re eyeing a player for an outright bet because of his recent play, you’re basing that pick off some recent top-10s on the PGA Tour. That’s not exactly where we’re starting with Hubbard, yet he has undeniably played good golf in recent weeks.

Last week at the Zurich, during his two rounds playing his own ball as part of the better ball format, Hubbard ranked third in the field in Strokes Gained, per Data Golf.

In his last three starts on the Korn Ferry Tour before his stop in New Orleans, Hubbard earned a top-15 finish. Over the last six months, he’s been the eighth-best player in this week’s field, according to True Strokes Gained from Data Golf.

I like his chances to capitalize with a strong week down in Mexico.

Austin Smotherman +12500 (BetMGM)

If we're going to give some credence to performance at similar courses or circumstances, Smotherman stands out as someone to target.

He won this event, back when it was a part of PGA Tour Latinoamérica, setting the all-time low score in a four-stroke win. That win came at another course miles and miles away from Vidanta Vallarta, but the style of grass and course design gives him a bit of a background to count on.

In fact, the Mexico Open he won was held at Tijuana Country Club, just down the way from Torrey Pines, where Smotherman had his best PGA Tour finish of his career earlier this season.

It might be a stretch to suggest Smotherman thrives on West Coast, Pacific Ocean-adjacent courses, but it’s a starting point.

It’s easier to bet on the current state of his swing. Smotherman has been the fourth-best iron player in this week’s field over the last three months, per True Strokes Gained from Data Golf.

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Chase Seiffert +15000 (DraftKings)

For those who have dreamed about the luxuries of playing on the PGA Tour, Chase Seiffert’s schedule this season is the goal. So far this FedEx Cup season, Seiffert has played tournaments in Napa, Bermuda, Hawaii, Pebble Beach, Palm Beach, Puerto Rico, Puntacana, and New Orleans. Must be nice!

Quietly, he’s played very well over the last few months. Seiffert has made four cuts in a row, with three top-25 finishes in his last four starts.

If you’re placing value on play at oceanside resort courses, Seiffert made the cut in 7-of-8 tries at Puntacana, Puerto Rico and Bermuda, including all three this season, with a T22 or better finish at each of those events in his career.

DJ Trahan +50000 (DraftKings)

When dealing with mega-longshots, sometimes you need to dabble in some small sample sizes.

Trahan leads this week’s field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over the last three months, per Data Golf. That number is heavily skewed by his performance at Pebble Beach, where his iron play led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Since then, he made the cut at both resort courses in Puntacana and Puerto Rico. Those were notable, given that he missed the cut in his eight prior tournaments.

At the three resort tournaments I’ve been mentioning (Bahamas, Puntacana, Puerto Rico), Trahan has made 14 career starts with five top-25s and two top-10s.

Maybe he’s not worth more than the flyer of a flyer as an outright, but at 40-1 for a top-10, I like his value.

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