2022 Mexico Open Betting Odds: Mark Hubbard Headlines 4 Longshot Picks in Puerto Vallarta

2022 Mexico Open Betting Odds: Mark Hubbard Headlines 4 Longshot Picks in Puerto Vallarta article feature image

James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Hubbard.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Mexico Open odds via BetMGM

2022 Mexico Open Odds

Jon Rahm+450
Abraham Ancer+1600
Tony Finau+2000
Aaron Wise+2200
Gary Woodland+2200
Cameron Tringale+2800
Kevin Na+2800
Patrick Reed+2800
Chris Kirk+3300
Sebastian Munoz+3300
Brendon Todd+4000
Kevin Streelman+4000
Aaron Rai+5000
Adam Long+5000
Cameron Champ+5000
Charles Howell III+5000
Davis Riley+5000
Matt Jones+5000
Russell Knox+5000
Doug Ghim+5000
C.T. Pan+6600
Carlos Ortiz+6600
Lanto Griffin+6600
Mark Hubbard+6600
Chad Ramey+6600
Sahith Theegala+6600
Taylor Moore+6600
Anirban Lahiri+8000
David Lipsky+8000
J.T. Poston+8000
Pat Perez+8000
Scott Stallings+8000
Alex Smalley+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
Scott Piercy+8000
Tyler Duncan+8000
Wyndham Clark+8000
Adam Svensson+10000
Brandon Wu+10000
Brian Stuard+10000
Greyson Sigg+10000
John Huh+10000
Nate Lashley+10000
Robert Streb+10000
Vince Whaley+10000
Austin Smotherman+12500
Brice Garnett+12500
Danny Lee+12500
Joseph Bramlett+12500
Kramer Hickok+12500
Michael Thompson+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Rafa Cabrera-Bello+12500
Ryan Armour+12500
Vaughn Taylor+12500
Andrew Putnam+15000
Ben Griffin+15000
Callum Tarren+15000
Chase Seiffert+15000
Emiliano Grillo+15000
Graeme McDowell+15000
Hank Lebioda+15000
Justin Lower+15000
Kurt Kitayama+15000
Lee Hodges+15000
Peter Uihlein+15000
Adam Schenk+15000
Dylan Wu+15000
Hayden Buckley+15000
Peter Malnati+15000
Scott Gutschewski+15000
Aaron Baddeley+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Ben Kohles+20000
Ben Martin+20000
Bo Hoag+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
James Hahn+20000
Jared Wolfe+20000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+20000
Luke Donald+20000
Matt Wallace+20000
Paul Barjon+20000
Roger Sloan+20000
Stephan Jaeger+20000
Wesley Bryan+20000
Bill Haas+20000
Camilo Villegas+25000
Curtis Thompson+25000
Jason Dufner+25000
Kevin Tway+25000
Patrick Flavin+25000
Richy Werenski+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Scott Brown+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
David Skinns+25000
Jonathan Byrd+25000
Max McGreevy+30000
Ryan Blaum+30000
Seth Reeves+30000
Seung-Yul Noh+30000
Austin Cook+35000
Brandon Hagy+35000
Bryson Nimmer+35000
David Lingmerth+35000
Fabian Gomez+35000
Greg Chalmers+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Robert Garrigus+35000
Roberto Díaz+35000
Sung Kang+35000
D.J. Trahan+40000
Martin Trainer+40000
Ricky Barnes+40000
Alvaro Ortiz+50000
A. Favela+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
David Hearn+50000
Dawie van der Walt+50000
Grayson Murray+50000
Jeffrey Kang+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Johnson Wagner+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Sangmoon Bae+50000
Tommy Gainey+50000
I. Benitez+75000
Mark Hensby+75000
Derek Ernst+75000
Ben Crane+100000
B. Willman+100000
D.A. Points+100000
Jonas Blixt+100000
Jose Antonio Safa+100000
Jose Cristobal Islas+100000
Manuel Inman+100000
Santiago De La Fuente+100000
Turk Pettit+100000
Richard S. Johnson+100000
A. Atwal+100000

Picking winners on the PGA Tour is no easy feat. It becomes a lot tougher when the Tour swings into a course for the first time.

That’s the case this week, with the Mexico Open serving as a PGA Tour event for the first time this century. Even when it was played as an event for PGA Tour Latinoamérica or the Web.com/Nationwide Tour in past years, it was never held at the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta.

Any thought of finding a horse for this course is based far more on speculation than past performance.

You may find some value in players who have fared well at other Greg Norman designs (TPC San Antonio and El Camaleon), other courses in Mexico (Chapultepec), other seaside resort courses (think Corales in Puntacana) or even just players who seem to have a game that can adapt to new surroundings.

Somewhere in that mix, combined with how players have fared in recent weeks, you’ll find the kernels of information that can lead to a smart bet.

Keep in mind: when bettors have so little information to work from, so do the sportsbooks. You’re chances of hunting down a dark horse that hits feel a little more likely when everyone is trying to hit a moving target.

Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Mexico Open.

Mark Hubbard +7000 (DraftKings)

Usually when you’re eyeing a player for an outright bet because of his recent play, you’re basing that pick off some recent top-10s on the PGA Tour. That’s not exactly where we’re starting with Hubbard, yet he has undeniably played good golf in recent weeks.

Last week at the Zurich, during his two rounds playing his own ball as part of the better ball format, Hubbard ranked third in the field in Strokes Gained, per Data Golf.

SG leaders in better-ball format from last week:

Cantlay +11.9 (2 rounds played)
Bubba +9.3 (2)
Hubbard +8.6 (2)
Huh +7.1 (1!)
Seiffert +7 (2)
Hatton +7 (2)
Keegan +7 (2)

Honourable mention to Jay Haas who gained 2.4 strokes in R1 (but lost 3.9 in R3).

— data golf (@DataGolf) April 25, 2022

In his last three starts on the Korn Ferry Tour before his stop in New Orleans, Hubbard earned a top-15 finish. Over the last six months, he’s been the eighth-best player in this week’s field, according to True Strokes Gained from Data Golf.

I like his chances to capitalize with a strong week down in Mexico.

Austin Smotherman +12500 (BetMGM)

If we're going to give some credence to performance at similar courses or circumstances, Smotherman stands out as someone to target.

He won this event, back when it was a part of PGA Tour Latinoamérica, setting the all-time low score in a four-stroke win. That win came at another course miles and miles away from Vidanta Vallarta, but the style of grass and course design gives him a bit of a background to count on.

In fact, the Mexico Open he won was held at Tijuana Country Club, just down the way from Torrey Pines, where Smotherman had his best PGA Tour finish of his career earlier this season.

It might be a stretch to suggest Smotherman thrives on West Coast, Pacific Ocean-adjacent courses, but it’s a starting point.

It’s easier to bet on the current state of his swing. Smotherman has been the fourth-best iron player in this week’s field over the last three months, per True Strokes Gained from Data Golf.

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Chase Seiffert +15000 (DraftKings)

For those who have dreamed about the luxuries of playing on the PGA Tour, Chase Seiffert’s schedule this season is the goal. So far this FedEx Cup season, Seiffert has played tournaments in Napa, Bermuda, Hawaii, Pebble Beach, Palm Beach, Puerto Rico, Puntacana, and New Orleans. Must be nice!

Quietly, he’s played very well over the last few months. Seiffert has made four cuts in a row, with three top-25 finishes in his last four starts.

If you’re placing value on play at oceanside resort courses, Seiffert made the cut in 7-of-8 tries at Puntacana, Puerto Rico and Bermuda, including all three this season, with a T22 or better finish at each of those events in his career.

DJ Trahan +50000 (DraftKings)

When dealing with mega-longshots, sometimes you need to dabble in some small sample sizes.

Trahan leads this week’s field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over the last three months, per Data Golf. That number is heavily skewed by his performance at Pebble Beach, where his iron play led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Since then, he made the cut at both resort courses in Puntacana and Puerto Rico. Those were notable, given that he missed the cut in his eight prior tournaments.

At the three resort tournaments I’ve been mentioning (Bahamas, Puntacana, Puerto Rico), Trahan has made 14 career starts with five top-25s and two top-10s.

Maybe he’s not worth more than the flyer of a flyer as an outright, but at 40-1 for a top-10, I like his value.

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