2022 PLAYERS Championship Longshot Picks: Sergio Garcia, Brian Harman Among 4 Available For Right Price
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Garcia.
- THE PLAYERS Championship has the world's best golfers, which means there are bigger outright numbers available than usual.
- Shane McNichol did a deep dive into the odds board and identified four players he sees value in.
- Check out his picks and breakdowns below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 PLAYERS Championship odds via PointsBet
2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+6000|
|Harold Varner III||+12500|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+15000|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+15000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+20000|
|J. J. Spaun||+25000|
After months of slowly building momentum in the 2022 FedEx Cup season, the PGA TOUR finally crests to new heights with THE PLAYERS Championship at legendary TPC Sawgrass.
Nearly all of golf’s biggest names will be in the field, save for an injured Bryson DeChambeau. Many of the world’s best will be vying for the biggest regular season payout on Tour, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a longshot sneak into contention. This century has seen a fair share of dark horse winners at this event, including Si Woo Kim, Tim Clark, Stephen Ames and Craig Perks.
This week, there is a healthy group of players with long odds but a realistic chance to be in the mix on Sunday afternoon.
Sergio Garcia +9000
By most definitions and at most sportsbooks, Sergio Garcia is not a long shot this weekend. Based on his current odds to win at FanDuel though, I simply couldn’t miss including him here. DraftKings has Garcia listed at odds more than half as high as these (+4000).
Garcia has excelled at TPC Sawgrass, year after year. Since 2004, he has played in the event 17 times, collecting a win (in ’08) along with four finishes in the top three and seven trips to the top 10. In almost two decades playing this event at this venue, Garcia has yet to miss the cut.
This season, Garcia has made six straight cuts, finishing in the top 40 and gaining strokes on the field in all six of those events. Over the last three months, he’s been one of the 10 best drivers of the ball in the world, per Strokes Gained numbers from DataGolf.
Even if Garcia isn’t going to find a way to win this week, his odds at FanDuel are juicy across the board. A top-40 finish for Garcia is available at a plus-number (+135) and his odds to make the top 30 are nearly 2-1 (now listed at +195).
Brian Harman +15000
Harman is a decent pick at TPC Sawgrass thanks to his past success on the course. He has earned three top 10s at THE PLAYERS since 2015, including in each of the last two completed events.
The lefty’s odds have crept up this high due to some shoddy play to start the 2022 season. Harman stumbled out of the gates in the wraparound schedule, though it seems like he’s starting to catch his stride.
Since returning from Hawaii at the Sony Open, Harman has made four starts, collecting two top 15s. His putter has been cold over the last month, causing him to lose strokes on the greens in all three of his February starts. If he can straighten that out, on a course where he’s shown he can play well, he’ll find his way onto the leaderboard.
Harman is available at 100-1 at most books, but DraftKings has the biggest number on him as of Monday afternoon.
Maverick McNealy +21000
This is just too much value for a player who has been scoring as well as McNealy has over the last half year. He’s 125-1 at every other major sportsbook, but FanDuel especially has a lack of faith in him at 210-1.
I can understand the hesitation in backing a player with a missed cut in his only start at this event. Soon after McNealy missed the cut at last year’s PLAYERS, though, he evolved into a new player.
From the start of the 2021 season to last May’s PGA Championship, McNealy played 17 events and missed nine cuts, earning only two top 10s in that stretch.
Since then, McNealy has played 19 events and made all but two cuts. He has only converted that newfound consistency into three top 10s (and a T11) in that period, yet he is clearly playing a different caliber of golf. Over the last six months, McNealy ranks 28th in the world in True Strokes Gained per Data Golf.
We’re speculating a bit here, but that’s how many longshot winners are found. If McNealy continues to play as well as we’ve seen in recent months, he’s deserving of much shorter odds than these and has every chance to be in the mix this weekend.
Jhonattan Vegas +28000
As far as lottery tickets go, and I’ll need you to excuse this terrible pun, but you can do a lot worse than rolling the dice on Vegas. Hey, I warned you!
Vegas has shown some ability to turn on his game for this event. He has more top tens at the Players (two) than missed cuts (one). He has not been stellar on US soil so far this season, but his top ten at the star-studded Saudi event last month showed his game has some life right now.
Compared to the players way down the board this week, none has shown more of a fight against the teeth of TPC Sawgrass. Among players in this week’s field with more than 20 rounds at the course, only recent winners Justin Thomas and Si Woo Kim have gained more strokes versus their baseline expectation at this event than Vegas.
With odds of 7-1 just to find the top 20, I like Vegas as a longshot. And as you could guess by now, the number listed above is available at FanDuel.
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